However, the demands of the Unified Democratic Madheshi Forum (UDMF), a combination of the four principal Madheshi parties – Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), Madheshi Janadhikar Forum-Loktantrik (MJF-L), Terai Madhesh Loktantrik Party (TMLP) and Sadbhawana Party (SP) – remain unacceptable to each of the national political formations. The 82-member alliance crucially seeks complete regional autonomy and a single Madheshi provincial state (ek Madhesh ek Pradesh), and an unambiguous ‘right to self-determination’, in addition to specific commitments on the peace process, the drafting of the Constitution, and implementation of past agreements such as the bulk integration of Madheshi people in Security institutions, as the price of its support to any Prime Ministerial candidate.

On August 1, the NC explicitly rejected the UDMF’s "ek Madhesh ek Pradesh" demand and the condition of bulk integration of the Madheshi people into security bodies, and sought further explanation on the proposed ‘right to self-determination’. There is little movement in the UCPN-M and the CPN-UML that would suggest that these demands may be acceptable to either of these.

After the downfall of the monarchy in April 2006, the Madheshi parties consolidated their support in the extended south of the country, substantially curtailing the influence of the Maoists, something that the other political parties initially celebrated, since this was at least partly responsible for denying the Maoists a majority in the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections of April 10, 2008. The Madheshi parties claimed 82 seats in a total of 599 in the CA, with 25 going to the MJF, 28 to the MJF-L, 20 to TMLP, and nine to SP.

While the Madheshi parties appear to have become much more central to any resolution of the protracted crisis in Kathmandu, it is far from the case that they can present any easy solution. Apart from their unbridgeable differences with the national political parties, there is little internal coherence even within the Madheshi groupings. There are, for instance, serious divergences of opinions regarding the question of autonomy. While the Upendra Yadav led MJF demands complete autonomy and freedom of the region to determine its own destiny, armed groups like the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha-Goit (JTMM-G) are raising the stakes to a claim of sovereignty. On July 14, 2007, the ‘commander’ of the JTMM-G, Jaikrishna Goit, had declared that his group sought ‘sovereignty’ for Madhesh, because it was the most exploited and colonised region in Nepal. Goit insisted that historical wrongs could not be addressed unless the Madheshi people were completely free to define their own future, and denounced groups like the MJF as ‘collaborators’ of Kathmandu, claiming that they would be bought off with no more than tokenism.

Significantly, the UDMF remained neutral in the first two rounds of the Prime Ministerial elections held on July 21 and 23, on the grounds that they would participate only if their demands were conceded by one of the candidates. Their ranks were, however, split in the August 2 round of the polls, when 11 members of the MJF, defying a party whip, voted for the Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda, in a body blow to the group’s solidarity.

Reports suggest that, on August 2, just before the third round of the elections the UDMF had a central committee meeting, which discussed the issue of "ek Madhesh ek Pradesh". The MJF, on its part, was urging the other UDMF constituents to be flexible on this issue, giving the CA the final right to decide on it. A party release stated: "The demand is negotiable and open to discussion. We don’t want to hamper Government formation by forwarding such a complicated issue." Reacting to the MJF statement, MJF-L chief whip, Ram Janam Chaudhary, observed that it was high time to bargain with the parties over their demand for a single Madheshi province: "We are in the process of Constitution drafting rather than only forming a Government, so we should stick to the demand."

Meanwhile, reports indicate that there are at least 30 underground militant groups operating in the 20 Districts of the Madhesh region. These armed groups remain a very real threat to any political accord in the region, and have resisted every effort to secure a permanent peace. Indeed, one of the prominent armed formations, the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha-Rajan (JTMM-R), on July 31, 2010, issued a 72-hour ultimatum to all Madhesh-based party leaders to resign from their posts, and to participate in the Samyukta Madhesh Mukti Aandolan (SMMA, the Unified Madhesh Freedom Movement). The JTMM-R ‘chairman and supreme commander’, Rajan Mukti, warned the Madheshi leaders not to support, assist, or protect any Government that may be formed under the leadership of a Nepali speaking leader. He also warned of ‘physical action’ against anyone who failed to comply with, or who went against, the terms of the ultimatum. ‘Physical action’ would also be taken against the Madhesh-based party leaders who participated in the ‘drama’ of Government formation, which was going on in the Legislature-Parliament, the JTMM-R threatened, further. Similarly, on August 5, another armed group, the Janatantrik Terai Madhesh Mukti Party (JTMMP), threatened action against the 11 MJF members who had defied the MJF’s directives and voted for Maoist Chairman Dahal, in the third round of the Prime Ministerial elections.

The trust deficit in the wider Nepali polity appears to have been replicated in politics of the ‘peripheral’ Madhesh region. While the national parties find themselves increasingly dependent on Madheshi support, the lack of consensus between the Madheshi parties and the proliferation of armed groupings has robbed the Madhesh lobby of any capacity to cash in on the power that has been yielded to them as a result of the political flux in Kathmandu. Barring a complete surprise, there appears to be little in all this that promises any breakthrough in the next round of Prime Ministerial elections scheduled for August 18. The weak, it seems, have found a voice; but don’t appear to be particularly sure about what they want to say.

[South Asia Intelligent Review]