In the first round of the election on July, 21, UCPN-M chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda, Nepali Congress (NC) leader Rama Chandra Poudel and CPN-UML General Secretary Jhala Nath Khanal filed their nominations. The election, however, ended in a deadlock, as neither of the final two candidates – Prachanda and Poudel – could get the magic number of 401 out of a total strength of 599 in the House. Significantly, the CA conducted voting on the nominations of the UCPN-M and the NC, since the CPN-UML withdrew its candidature just minutes before the scheduled time of election. The caretaker PM explained the decision to withdraw, stating, "The UML withdrew the candidature as it could not receive a written commitment of support from at least 401 members of Parliament which makes a two third majority."

Of the 592 members voting, Prachanda secured the support of 242, while 114 voted against and 236 members remained neutral. In Poudel’s case, out of the 587 votes cast, 124 members voted in his favour , 235 members voted against, and 228 remained neutral. The UCPN-M has a total strength of 238 members in the Parliament while the NC has 114.

With no decision possible on this outcome, the Chairman of the CA, Subash Nembang, declared that a run-off election would be held on the July 23.

On July 23, even as the process of the run-off elections was to start, Prachanda and Subash Nembang held a flurry of meetings with fringe parties in a bid to secure support for the Maoist candidate. Ironically, Prachanda also held a separate meeting with the leaders of the pro-monarchy Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), seeking their support. He was also scheduled to meet the Madhesh-based parties, but the meeting failed to materialise, as the Madheshi leaders remained busy working out their common strategy. Four Madheshi parties, under the umbrella of the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), decided to list their conditions for support to either candidate. These included an assurance that the new Constitution would be drafted, that peace would be established, and Madheshi concerns would be addressed.

The results of the run-off elections, however, were almost a repetition of the earlier round. Of the 572 votes cast for the UCPN-M, 241 voted in favour, 113 against, and 218 remained neutral. Of the 578 members participating in the election process of the NC, 123 voted in favour, 241 against, and 214 remained neutral. Meanwhile, the Business Advisory Committee (BAC) of the Legislature-Parliament on July 23 itself decided to hold a second run-off election on August 2.

Given the prevailing political situation, any possibilities of a positive outcome in the next run-off are remote, even as each political party continues to contribute to the deadlock in Nepal. The CPN-UML remains determined not to take part in the elections as long as it is not assured of a clear outcome. On July 23, CPN-UML leader Bharat Mohan Adhikari announced that his party would not take part in the election until there is confirmation that it would ensure "a national consensus Government". The UML, moreover, is also not particularly keen on an alliance with the Nepali Congress (NC), with whose support it remained in office for little more than a year. During its year in office, the CPN-UML failed to garner the confidence and support of its 22 coalition partners. The chances of forming a national consensus Government – what the UML is looking for – are consequently bleak at the present juncture.

The NC has its own problems, and there has been crisis of leadership since the death of Girija Prasad Koirala. While some of its members support the CPN-UML, others insist on an ‘independent’ line. In an effort to break the deadlock, Sujata Koirala, Deputy Prime Minister in the caretaker Government and NC leader, said, on July 22, that the parties should trust the Maoists and that she had no problem with a Maoist-led Government. On July 30, she went on to say that the NC was ready to withdraw its candidate from the race for the Prime Minister’s post.

However, the prospects of the NC and UCPN-M reaching the magic number are also bleak, as it is near impossible for them to get the support of the Madhesh based parties, who have 83 members in the Constituent Assembly, and have become even more demanding on a special status to the Madhesh region. Notably, the UDMF has asked for a written commitment from both NC and UCPN-M on the issue. Though the UCPN-M, on July 29, agreed to give a written commitment to the UDMF, it does not support the core demand of "ek Madhesh ek Pradesh" (One Madhesh, one Provincial State).

Compounding issues further, is the question of integration of Maoist armed cadres with the Nepal Army. Even as electoral uncertainties mounted, the Vice Chairman of the UCPN-M Baburam Bhattarai declared, on July 29, that his party was ‘ready to finish the important task’ of integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants, by separating those among them who want to be integrated into the State Security Forces and those who do not. He also said that this would be done by bringing the Maoist combatants under the Army Integration Special Committee. It is, however, clearly understood that this statement was only intended to secure the support of the other political parties for the August 2 elections. The Maoists have demonstrated an increasing obsession with the being in power and, while they speak of the formation of a "national Government" or "unity Government", they have failed to evolve a basic and mutual understanding with the NC and CPN-UML on the writing of the Constitution. It is significant that, when they decided to support the CPN-UML candidate Jhala Nath Khanal in the First run-off election on July 23, they chose to keep their own candidature unchanged at the same time.

There is no chance of a new candidate emerging to strike a balance among the political parties, since the Parliament Rules of Procedures, 2008, bar the entry of new candidates in run-off elections, even where contestants from previous rounds fail to secure a majority.

In the five years since the peace process was initiated in 2006, Nepal has had two different Governments under two different political parties. The UCPN-M led Government, headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal as Prime Minister remained in the office from August 18, 2008, to May 4, 2009, while the CPN-UML led Government under Prime Ministership Madhav Kumar Nepal presided between May 23, 2009, and June 30, 2010.

The continuing uncertainty over elections, the deadlock in the Constitution-drafting process, the absence of progress on critical outstanding issues, including the integration of Maoist armed cadres, the simmering difficulties in the Madhesh, and the intensifying cycles of disruptive strikes and street demonstrations, are all combined in a deeply unsettling scenario in Nepal. The country has learnt to live in a state of permanent crisis, but unless some political breakthrough is devised, there is a rising danger that things may worsen dramatically, as one or the other player finds brinkmanship more seductive than the wearing tasks of building a consensus between myopic, fractious and irreconcilable political parties.

[South Asia Intelligent Review]