South Asian Outlook : An Independent e-Monthly | South Asia: Pakistan

       (Afghanistan and Myanmar in the
         map are not members of SAARC)

Disastrous Peace, Ruinous War

Kanchan Lakshman
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management;
Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution

The latest ‘peace deal’ in the NWFP will, most likely, be no more effective than previous misadventures of this kind. The ‘settlement’ with the TNSM will produce not more than a brief lull before a rising storm, even as Islamabad’s manifest weakness is exploited in new theatres across the country.

- "Creating New Terror", South Asia Intelligence Review,
Vol. 7, No. 33, February 23, 2009

With the preordained collapse of the peace deal, violence has returned to Swat District in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Full fledged military operations were launched on May 8, 2009, with the offensive coming after Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani announced, a day earlier during his address to the nation, that the Government had called out the Security Forces (SFs) to fight the militants, and appealed to the people to back the decision. The Government, he added, had given enough opportunity for the Taliban to lay down arms and eschew violence.

The Inter-Services Public Relations Director General, Major General Athar Abbas, stated at a Press briefing in Rawalpindi on May 8, that the military had launched a "full-scale operation" in Swat and the Taliban were on the run. More than 140 militants have been killed in Swat during the preceding 24 hours, he stated. Abbas added, further,

After the complete breakdown of law and order and the non-adherence of the militants to the peace deal in Swat Valley, the Army was called out in aid of the civil power to eliminate the militants and restore the writ of the Government... The operation will continue until such time as we have not liberated the people of Swat from the clutches of the militants. The military will not leave unless it is taken over by the civil administration and the writ of the Government is restored.

He also stated that the militants were attempting to block the exodus of innocent civilians by preventing their departure through coercion, roadblocks and holding people hostage. According to Reuters, he said there were 4,000 to 5,000 militants in Swat, including Uzbeks and Tajiks. Abbas also said 12,000 to 15,000 Army personnel were taking part in the operation and there was no need to pull out troops from the eastern border as a sufficient number of troops had been deployed in the disturbed areas.

On the ground, intense violence continues to afflict the NWFP, although the guns had fallen relatively silent in Swat since the ‘peace deal’ was announced on February 16, 2009. 1,772 people, including 470 civilians and 1,131 militants, have already died in the province in 2009 (till May 10). Since May 6 alone, at least 315 militants, 40 civilians and nine soldiers have died in Swat (the categorization is based on official declarations. No independent confirmation of the identity of militants is available). Major General Abbas said the militants had abducted over 100 individuals, killed 30 soldiers, carried out four suicide and eight improvised explosive device attacks, looted six banks, destroyed three Police Stations and one electricity Grid Station and damaged two schools, after the peace agreement. The military disclosed that the Taliban carried out patrolling, set up check-posts, kidnapped for ransom, killed, and damaged private properties, violating the peace deal.

The deteriorating state of play since last week could lead to increasing violence and greater displacement across Swat and the adjoining Districts, which had been relatively peaceful since the peace deal on February 16. More than one million people have already left their homes in the violence-hit Malakand region, after a Taliban surge and the military response, the NWFP Environment Minister Wajid Ali Khan said in Peshawar on May 8. Major General Abbas said the Army had taken measures to prevent civilian casualties, but said "no guarantee can be given that there will be no collateral damage." The provincial Government estimates between 150,000 to 200,000 people have already arrived in safer areas of the province over the last few days (reported on May 8), with another 300,000 already on the march or about to leave, according to the UN High Commission for Refugees. UNHCR noted that those fleeing the latest escalation of hostilities in Lower Dir, Buner and Swat join another 555,000 previously displaced Pakistanis who had fled their homes in the tribal areas and NWFP. The refugee crisis is expected to worsen in the coming days as fighting escalates in Swat and other areas of the Frontier.

Latest reports indicate that the Khawazkhela and Chamtalai areas in Swat had been secured by the SFs. The SFs have focused on militant hideouts in many areas, including Malokabad, Shahdarra, Rung Mohallah, Rajabad, Zamrud Mine, Qazi Baba, Watkai, Naway Killay, Ingoro Dherai, Takhtaband, Balogram and Qambar. Troops are currently targeting the militants’ training camps on the mountain strongholds, ammunition dumps and command and communication centers. "Special care has been taken to strike identified targets and those which are away from populated areas," military spokesman Major General Abbas said. The Taliban, on its part, has regrouped rather well. On May 6, militants were seen patrolling the streets of Mingora, the main town in Swat. Furthermore, Taliban militants who came down from the mountains late on May 5, occupied the homes of local residents and were, reportedly, controlling many strategic points in the Valley. More ominously, the Taliban has planted countless landmines and explosive devices around the populated areas of Swat to stop the people from leaving their homes and were using women and children as human shields against the military operation, a Federal Cabinet meeting was told on May 6.

The military has stated that the Taliban resistance in the adjoining Buner District had been reduced considerably, but militants were maintaining positions at Sultanwas and Pir Baba. Despite the reverses, however, sources indicate that the Taliban have a considerable presence in Buner, including militants from south Punjab, as well as Uzbek and other foreign militants. The military spokesman said the resistance the Taliban had put up and their weapons – assault rifles, anti-aircraft missiles and mortars – showed they had come to Buner with the intention to stay. He said locals had confirmed that foreigners were also present in Buner, and were fighting the SFs along with the Taliban. Brigadier Fayyaz Mehmood Qamar, who is in charge of military operations in Buner, claimed, on May 3, that the operations would be completed within a week. He said there were few local militants, while Uzbek militants were present in large numbers, putting up a stiff resistance.

Military operations are also underway in Lower Dir District, where the Taliban are reportedly in control of the eastern part that connects with the Swat Valley. The Taliban also operate a training camp in one of the hills in Lower Dir. While the Interior Minister Rehman Malik claimed, on April 27, that the District had been cleared of militants, intermittent reports since then, quoting residents, stated that clashes were still taking place. Lower Dir is strategically significant since it is bordered by Swat to the east and the Bajaur Agency in FATA to the west. U.S. officials say the "Taliban domination of Lower Dir could create a pipeline for fighters from Swat to reach the battlefields of Afghanistan" while Pakistani officials "fear the same route could be used in reverse, to move Taliban fighters from bases in the mountains near the Afghan border to within striking distance of Pakistan's plains."

An operation has also been launched against the Taliban in the Shen Dhand, Tor Chappar, Sunni Khel, Bosti Khel and Akhorwal areas of Darra Adamkhel, the Frontier’s weapons bazaar. Further, in Shangla District, SFs attacked militants’ hideouts in Loisar and secured two dominating mountain heights called Point 2245 and 2266 on May 9.

The Taliban-led militancy in the Frontier not only challenges the writ of the Government but also threatens to accelerate Pakistan’s collapse as a nation-state. The loss of Swat, which is barely 100 miles from national capital Islamabad, to the Taliban-al Qaeda combine, has generated a fear that this could lead to an implosion of the state itself, with perilous repercussions for regional and global security. The peace deal and introduction of Sharia (Islamic law) in Swat District and Malakand Division must be viewed in the context of a failing state apparatus in Pakistan. The disastrous peace deal was an unambiguously desperate move to escape militancy in the Frontier, and an indication that the SFs were either unwilling or incapable of fighting Islamist militancy. The simple truth is that, in Swat, around 4,000-5,000 militants (there is still no accepted official figure) defeated the SFs, whose numbers were at least four times as many, over about 17 months of intense fighting. (The Army was deployed in Swat in July 2007. However, till November 10, 2007, it was only assisting the Police and Paramilitary Forces, who were conducting operations against the militants. It was only on November 11, 2007, that President Pervez Musharraf had announced that the Army had taken over the anti-militancy drive under emergency regulations.)

Successive regimes in Pakistan have resorted to a muddled approach of alternating military operations and peace accords. Most peace deals with militants in the past few years, be it in the Frontier or FATA, have quickly collapsed, only serving to embolden the forces of radical Islam, be it in Afghanistan, Pakistan or elsewhere, in the brief hiatus of diminished hostilities. Dialogue and short-lived peace deals have been tried again and again, only to have the Taliban return to the areas stronger than before. More importantly, the fairly substantial presence of military and paramilitary forces in the region has not led to a modicum of stability. In fact, the seventh-largest Army in the world has failed comprehensively in dealing with the multiple internal security challenges confronting the nation.

Islamabad, for the moment, has again swung to the belief that force is necessary. How long this remains the case is to be seen. There has been a strategic failure in Pakistan and elsewhere in South Asia when it comes to neutralising insurgencies of this kind, and an unwillingness to accept the plain truth that, without forcefully neutralising the insurgency, there is little likelihood that a political approach or counter-insurgency strategy will succeed.

While the Taliban may have over-stated their case after the peace deal, by a blatant display of their prowess through their actions in Buner, Swat and Lower Dir, the reality is that the state is far too weak to counter them.

The latest military offensive was launched under severe global pressure at a time when President Asif Ali Zardari was on a visit to the United States. The Commander of the US Central Command, General David Petraeus, had reportedly told US officials in late April that the following two weeks were to be "critical to determining whether the Pakistani Government will survive." He also stated, "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses..." Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on April 22 that Pakistan was facing an "existential threat" from Islamic militants. She said the Government in Islamabad was ceding territory and "basically abdicating to the Taliban and the extremists". Under intense pressure from the US administration, everyone in Islamabad now seems to be making the ‘right noises’. While Prime Minister Gilani has said it is a battle for the survival of Pakistan, the CoAS, General Ashfaq Kayani, declared that the Army would fight till "decisive ascendancy" had been achieved in Swat. President Asif Ali Zardari had stated, in Washington on May 7, that military operations would continue till normalcy was restored in Swat.

Will the military operations be sustained and carried to their logical conclusion – the neutralisation of the Taliban? Much of the answer to this lies in the trajectory of violence in NWFP and elsewhere in Pakistan and also whether Pakistan is able to sever its bond with radical Islam. There is bound to be a severe backlash following the launch of military operations in Swat and elsewhere in Frontier. In fact, the success of military operations in Swat is closely linked to the trajectory of violence in other Districts of the Frontier and in the other provinces. The Swat division of the Taliban is closely linked to the Taliban and al Qaeda network across Pakistan. In order to reduce the pressure in the Frontier, the Taliban-al Qaeda combine will, in the coming weeks, resort to violence and subversion throughout Pakistan, including, specifically, the urban areas. Furthermore, the Taliban has already vowed to ‘eliminate’ the country's top leadership, including President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani and their close family members. "We thought that being a member of a religious family, Gilani will support our demand of implementing Sharia in the Malakand Division, but instead he has announced an all-out war against us, which has angered our commanders as well as fighters," an unnamed Taliban commander told The News. He warned that Gilani's hometown, Multan, and the tomb of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto might also be targeted by the militants. He claimed, further, "Besides, the personnel and installations of security forces, we have now also included civilian rulers in our hit list. We will definitely need some time to plan our actions but it is not impossible for us and we have all the means to implement our plan of attack anywhere in Pakistan."

The Pakistan Army has failed earlier, before the peace deal was signed, to neutralise the Taliban in the NWFP. Another inconclusive campaign will be disastrous well beyond the Frontier.

[South Asia Intelligent Review]

News Briefs

164 Taliban militants and 32 soldiers among 217 persons killed in NWFP during the week: Security Forces (SFs) on May 31, 2009 entered the Kalam Valley and took control of Mingora city in Swat District, while 12 militants were killed during the last 24 hours in the ongoing Operation Rah-e-Rast, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said. Eight SF personnel were also killed and six others sustained injuries, it added. Mingora city is now reportedly in control of the SFs who are manning every square, street and building and keeping a vigil on every passing vehicle and people. In addition, the SFs killed two militants at the Umerzeb checkpoint in Dir Lower District during an encounter with the militants.

SFs cleared Mingora city of the Taliban and destroyed the stronghold of the militant commanders, ISPR spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said on May 30. Addressing a joint press conference with Information Minister Qamar Zaman Qaira, he said 25 Taliban militants were killed during the last 24 hours, including commanders, Abu Saeed Misbahud Din and Sultan Khan. He said SFs have successfully secured Nawagai and Najigram, and seized a large cache of arms and ammunition. He also said that the training centre of known Taliban commanders Lal Din, Said Jalil and Mian Said Liaq have been destroyed in Peochar, adding, five 100-foot-long tunnels have also been demolished. Responding to questions, he said 1,217 Taliban militants were killed and 79 arrested since the start of the military offensive on April 26. In the same period, 81 SF personnel were also killed while 250 others sustained injuries, he added.

SFs took control of Bahrain and cleared Peochar village in the Swat District, the ISPR said on May 29 as SFs killed 28 Taliban militants, including commander Khush Mir Khan a.k.a. Abu Huzaifa. In addition, during a search operation in the Kalpani area of Lower Dir District, the army killed six Taliban commanders. Further, SFs also defused five improvised explosive devices during a search operation around Daggar in Buner District. The army is reported to have killed 13 Taliban militants hiding in a compound during a gun-battle.

Terrorists attacked Peshawar, capital of the NWFP, and its environs on May 28 as eight people were killed and over 68 sustained injuries. Two separate blasts took place in the Qissa Khwani bazaar while three Policemen were killed and nine others injured in a suicide attack on a Police vehicle at the Sra Khawra security post on the Kohat road. Two suspected militants were killed and two others arrested in an encounter between the Police and alleged terrorists who had taken shelter in a building located behind Qissa Khwani bazaar soon after the two blasts. Meanwhile, SFs on May 28 entered Bahrain, while seven more militants were killed and four others, including an important commander, were arrested during the last 24 hours in the ongoing operation in Swat Valley, the ISPR said. Four soldiers were also killed while 12 others sustained injuries in clashes between SFs and militants in different areas of Swat valley.

SFs said on May 27 they would clear Mingora town in Swat District of the Taliban within two to three days, as 12 more militants were killed in the ongoing military operation. Mingora Force Commander Brigadier Tahir Hamid told the media that SFs had secured 70 percent of Mingora city. He said the army was chasing the Taliban through the streets. According to an ISPR statement, one solider was also killed during the operation in the last 24 hours. In addition, two soldiers were killed when their vehicle hit a roadside bomb in Qambar near Mingora, AFP reported. In addition, troops claimed on May 27 to have killed 10 militants in the Maidan area of Lower Dir District on May 26-night. Militants’ hideouts in Zaimdara, Shagai, Dabako, Babagam and other place of upper Maidan reportedly came under shelling.

SFs gained control of half of Mingora city and killed 29 militants in various areas of Swat Valley during the last 24 hours besides arresting 14 others, the ISPR Director General Major General Athar Abbas said on May 26. "Six soldiers also laid down their lives and 11 others sustained injuries," he told reporters at a press briefing in Islamabad. About Buner, he said 90 percent area of the District had been cleared although some terrorists are present at Pir Baba. He added that in the night of May 25, about 100 to 120 militants attacked the Kalpani post in Dir Lower District from three directions and the attack was repulsed and militants suffered heavy casualties. Eight bodies have been recovered in close vicinity of the check-post. Two SF personnel were also killed in the incident and three others were wounded. Further, several militants and five civilians were killed and 10 others injured in shelling by the military gunship helicopters in Shangla District. Sources said SFs, backed by gunship helicopters, targeted the militant-infested areas of Jabar, Amnavi and Achar in the early hours of May 26.

The SFs on May 25 secured the training centre and logistic base of militants in the Malam Jabba area of Swat Valley. They also killed four militants during operations in the Fizagat and Peuchar areas and arrested eight others. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), SFs faced stiff resistance from the militants in Malam Jabba. Located on main line of communication that links the Swat Valley with Mansehra, the area with thick forest was being used as a training centre and logistic base by the militants. SFs also secured Fizagat, a few kilometres north of Mingora city, and the area up to Watakai. During the operations, two militants were killed and six soldiers were wounded in an encounter. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, May 26-June 1, 2009.

51 militants and seven soldiers killed during the week in FATA: 25 militants, including a senior commander of the Baitullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Miraj Burki, and six soldiers were killed and several others wounded in clashes between the militants and Security Forces (SFs) in South Waziristan Agency in the night of May 31. Other reports said 13 soldiers were killed and over two dozens injured. Fierce fighting between the two sides has reportedly forced thousands of tribal families to leave their homes in the Mehsud-inhabited areas. The latest clashes erupted with two different attacks on a security post and a military convoy by the militants at Spinkai Raghzai and Tiarza.

Two Taliban militants and a soldier were killed in a clash between the SFs and militants near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in South Waziristan in the night of May 29. Local residents and political administration officials said some Taliban militants attacked a check-post of the SFs at Narai Sarkai border area with rocket launchers killing a soldier, Shahid, and injuring two others. Two Taliban militants were killed and another injured when the troops retaliated.

15 Taliban militants were killed and several injured by the SFs shelling in the in Sarokai area of South Waziristan Agency on May 27.

SFs on May 26 launched a military operation against the Baitullah Mehsud-led militants in South Waziristan, reportedly killing seven militants. However, the military spokesman, Major General Athar Abbas, denied the operation in South Waziristan and said SFs had just consolidated their positions in the region. Further, SFs shot dead two suspected militants when they refused to surrender in the Mamad Gat area of Mohmand Agency on May 26. Sources told The News that the duo, whose identity could not be established, were heading for Ghallanai from the Chinari area when the SFs stopped them near the Mohmand Rifles camp and ordered them to surrender. However, the militants resisted, which prompted the troops to open indiscriminate fire, killing both of them on the spot. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, May 26-June 1, 2009.

27 persons killed and 400 injured in suicide attack near ISI and Police offices in Lahore: Suicide bombers detonated a vehicle loaded with 100 kilograms of explosives near offices of the capital city police officer (CCPO) and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Lahore on May 27, 2009 – killing at least 27 persons and injuring 400 others, in addition to destroying a two-storey building of the Rescue 15 police service, according to Police. An ISI Colonel and 15 Police officials were among those killed. Witnesses said the attack started midmorning when two gunmen stepped out of a white van – which had pulled up in a narrow street separating the police and ISI buildings – cautioned civilians to take cover, and started firing at Security Force (SF) personnel deployed down the street. The gunmen also hurled a grenade at the SFs personnel. As the firing continued, the driver managed to cross the concrete barrier, but could not get further and was forced to blow up the vehicle there. Superintendent of Police Sohail Sukhera said a threefold security cordon prevented the attackers from getting to the offices CCPO and ISI offices. He said the terrorist in the vehicle was shot – which prompted him to blow up the vehicle about a hundred feet away from the intended target, in front of the Rescue 15 building.

Officials later said at least three suspects had been detained. Civil Defence District Officer Mazhar Abbas said a suicide jacket and two Russian-made hand grenades had been found from the blast site. The AP news agency reported that "several intelligence agents" were among the dead. A nearby filling station was totally destroyed and several car showrooms damaged. The ceilings of several operating rooms in a nearby hospital caved in, and windows of buildings in a two-kilometre radius were shattered. Most of the outer wall of the ISI office was destroyed and the building partially damaged, while the CCPO’s office was also damaged. Interior Minister Rehman Malik said the blast was in reaction to the military operation in the Malakand Division of NWFP. Daily Times; The News, May 28, 2009.

10,000 men protecting nuclear assets, says senior defence official: A senior official of Pakistan’s premier defence establishment has said that a large force of nearly 10,000 people is in place to ensure security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and western fears about the safety of the weapons are unfounded. Air Commodore Khalid Banuri, who is Director of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs at the Strategic Plans Division, said that Pakistan’s ‘command and control structure’ for the weapons was better than that of many other nuclear states, and many countries and their experts had officially acknowledged this. In an interview with DawnNews, Air Commodore Banuri described as "preposterous" western media reports that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons might fall into wrong hands — terrorists or other non-state actors. "The intent clearly appears to be mala fide," he said, adding "It does not make sense for anyone to continue to harp on this despite having understanding of how Pakistan does its work." He said: "We have taken stringent measures which are legislative, institutional, procedural and administrative. We have ensured all aspects of nuclear capability." Elaborating, he said that a large force of highly trained and professional people — in fact over 10,000 people were looking after the security of the nuclear assets. Dawn, May 28, 2009.

More than 200 people killed in NWFP during the week: Troops have secured several important areas in Mingora, including a crossing infamous for beheadings carried out by the Taliban, said Security Forces (SFs) on May 24, 2009, as the military killed another 10 militants in various areas of Swat District. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said 10 militants and three soldiers were killed in gun-battles in various areas of Swat, while 14 militants were arrested.

17 Taliban militants, including a ‘commander’, were killed at Mingora in Swat on May 23, military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said. He said the troops had secured a part of the city from the Circuit House to Makan Bagh. Battles to secure Nawan Killi have begun and a link up between forces coming from Fiza Ghat to Whataki Chowk and Ayub Bridge to Nawan Killi has been completed. Intense clashes were reported from Nishat Chowk in Mingora. Further, a suicide bomber was shot dead and an explosives-laden vehicle was destroyed in Makanzai area of the city.

17 militants and three SF personnel were killed and ten SF personnel sustained injuries during fighting in various areas of Swat District on May 22. According to an official announcement, troops are consolidating their positions and expanding their control over the valley. The SFs are reported to have secured militants’ strongholds in Takhtaband village and Qambar. During an encounter between the two sides, eight militants and one soldier were killed and six SF personnel were wounded.

SFs said on May 21 that ‘a number of Taliban’ – including an important commander – and five soldiers were killed in the preceding 24 hours in Swat. "An important ... [Taliban] commander, Abu Tariq, was killed and seven Taliban were apprehended… A number of Taliban were killed, while five soldiers also died in Kanju and Takhtaband area," the ISPR said.

19 people, including 11 suspected militants and three SF personnel, were killed in the ongoing military operation and a roadside blast in the Maidan area of Dir Lower District on May 21. Sources said two SF personnel, identified as Captain Omarzeb and Lance Naik Shahzad Alam, were killed and two others sustained injuries when a military convoy was attacked with a remote-controlled bomb in the Shahi Koto area of Maidan. Subsequent to the blast, SFs opened fire, killing four persons and injuring two children. Further, one trooper, Mehboob, was killed during the search operation in the Kumbar area. Four militants were also killed in the search operation. Further, during clashes in the Nanbati and Kalpani areas, seven militants were killed, while a soldier sustained injuries. In addition, a man was shot dead in Chakdara for violating curfew.

SFs have completely secured the Sultanwas area of Buner District, overcoming tough resistance and killing 80 militants, Director General of the ISPR, Major General Athar Abbas said in Islamabad on May 20. "Since Tuesday morning to the completion of operation before dawn, 80 militants have been killed," Abbas told a press briefing. However, he said there was no independent confirmation of the casualties due to the ground situation in the area. Sultanwas was the main stronghold of the militants in Buner, where they had made concrete underground bunkers and ammunition dumps.

A Major and three soldiers were killed in Swat as SFs killed 16 Taliban militants in fierce street battles in the preceding 24 hours, Daily Times reported on May 20. With the area surrounded by the SFs, Major Abid was hit in an exchange of fire with the Taliban inside Matta. "Operation Rah-e-Rast is making headway as planned, and in last 24 hours, 16 Taliban were killed ... an officer and three soldiers also died," the ISPR disclosed. 27 militants were killed as the SFs started a ground offensive in Swat on May 18. Three important commanders, including Okasha, Malanga and Riaz, were among the 27 militants killed during the operation that has now been named as Rah-e-Rast, military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas informed the media. He said Mamdherai Markaz was targeted by the SFs and 10 to 15 terrorists hiding inside were killed. He also said three SF personnel, including an officer, were also killed and 17 others injured during the fighting. Abbas stated that the SFs were engaged with militants inside Kanju town to clear the area and an operation was underway in Takhtaband area, where seven combatants were killed in a close encounter. According to him, SFs had also expanded their foothold in Peuchar and killed 12 militants in the area. The troops also attacked and secured the Dumber training centre, which was being used by militants as their logistics base. Meanwhile, several persons, including women and children, were killed and a number of others sustained injuries when families fleeing the military operation in Swat District’s Matta town were shelled while crossing a mountainous path to reach Karo Darra in Dir Upper District on May 18. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, May 19-25, 2009.

31 militants among 44 persons killed in FATA during the week: Fighter jets and helicopter gunships targeted Taliban hideouts in the Orakzai Agency of FATA on May 24, 2009, with the AP news agency reporting at least 18 people killed in the offensive. AP quoted a Government official as saying that the targets were strongholds of Hakeemullah Mehsud, a deputy to Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. Hundreds have reportedly fled the area amid the fighting.

At least nine persons – four civilians and five Security Force personnel – were killed and 25 injured in a suicide attack near a Frontier Corps (FC) fort in the Jandola area of Tank in the evening of May 21. According to a private TV channel, an explosives-laden truck rammed into the FC camp, damaging several nearby shops and the fort.

On May 19, SFs claimed to have killed 13 militants and arrested five foreign combatants in an encounter near Khapakh check-post in the Halimzai sub-division of Mohmand Agency. A spokesman for the Mohmand Rifles Media Centre said SFs arrested five Burqa (veil)-clad foreign militants when they were trying to infiltrate into Afghanistan via the Pakistan-Afghanistan route. Following their arrest, the spokesman said local militants attacked the Khapakh security checkpoint with sophisticated weapons from all sides. He said SFs repulsed the attack and killed 13 militants in the ensuing three-hour encounter. "Three of the arrested militants belong to Saudi Arabia and one each to Libya and Afghanistan," the spokesman added.

The Taliban in Mohmand Agency on May 18 announced they had killed two soldiers of the paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC), who were in their custody, and threatened to execute the remaining four if the Government failed to meet their demand for an exchange of prisoners. Ikramullah, a spokesman for the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Mohmand Agency chapter, told The News by phone from an undisclosed location that Sepoy Imran was executed on May 17 while Sepoy Zari Badshah was killed on May 18. He said the bodies of the two men were left on Qandaharo Road in Mohmand Agency. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, May 19-25, 2009.

Iraq Al Qaeda commanders in Pakistan, indicate intelligence agencies: The Government has directed law-enforcement agencies to arrest seven "highly trained militants and Al Qaeda masterminds from Iraq" who – according to reports by intelligence agencies – have entered Pakistan. According to an official document BBC Urdu claimed it had received, those who have entered Pakistan are planning to train ‘like-minded people’ and target key Government officials, including President Asif Ali Zardari, the Chief Ministers of the four provinces and intelligence agencies’ officers and commanders. The group could also target embassies of non-Muslim and pro-US Muslim countries in Islamabad. The intelligence report also said that Al Qaeda commanders met in Afghanistan’s Paktia province on May 3, 2009, and decided they would continue supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Daily Times, May 21, 2009.

1050 persons killed in 671 terrorist incidents in 2008-09 in NWFP: According to official figures, as many as 1,059 persons, including Security Force personnel and civilians, were killed in 671 terrorist incidents, which also included suicide attacks, in the NWFP from 2008 till March 25, 2009. During 2008, a total 524 incidents, including 30 suicide attacks, were reported. In these attacks 146 Policemen, 32 Frontier Corps (FC) personnel, 76 Army/SF officials and 595 civilians were killed while 1,962 were injured. In the first four months of 2009, as many as 140 incidents of terrorism and seven suicide attacks were carried out. These incidents claimed 26 lives of Police officials, nine of FC personnel, 12 of Army/SFs and 126 civilian, while 771 people were injured. The office of the Additional Inspector General of Police (Investigation) NWFP revealed that Police foiled 94 terrorist attacks in 2008 and five in 2009. They recovered 52,408 kilograms of explosive materials, 23 suicide jackets, 729 hand grenades/dynamite packs, detonators and anti-tank mines and 134 rocket launchers, bombs, missiles and mortar shells. The News, May 19, 2009.

More than 450 persons killed during the week in NWFP: As troops closed in on militants in the Matta sub-division on Swat District, Security Forces (SFs) on May 17, 2009, said they had killed 25 militants in the Arkot and Peuchar areas during the preceding 24 hours. One officer was killed while seven soldiers sustained injuries during the fighting. Earlier, 47 Taliban militants were killed in various areas of Malakand Division during the preceding 24 hours, the ISPR spokesman Major General Athar Abbas told reporters on May 16. Claiming ‘significant achievements’ in the ongoing military operation against Taliban, he also confirmed the presence of hardcore foreign militants in Swat.

While asking the internally displaced people to help identify the fleeing militants, SFs on May 15 claimed to have killed 55 militants in the Swat and Buner Districts. SFs conceded three fatalities, besides injuries to 11 soldiers. The SFs also claimed to have gained success in their actions in different areas of the Valley, but the areas were not specified. The ISPR said SFs had credible reports that the Taliban militants had shaved off their beards and trimmed hair to escape action. It said these militants were fleeing the Swat Valley in the guise of civilians. It asked the people to help identify the fleeing militants to SFs.

60 Taliban militants and nine soldiers were killed in Swat District on May 14. Military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas confirmed 54 Taliban deaths in a daily briefing, and said the military was taking "extra-ordinary measures to avoid collateral damage". He said the Army destroyed at least 15 Taliban hideouts in the Ramotai Loe area of Shangla District. Abbas said SFs in Barikot removed roadside bombs and eliminated the remaining Taliban resistance to clear areas up to Udigram, six kilometers short of Mingora, the main town in Swat. While 13 militants were killed in the Tursak suburb of Mingora, three militants, including a key commander, were killed in Udigram. Further, Frontier Corps sources said 30 Taliban militants were killed in Kalpani and 20 more were killed in the Hayasarae area of Lower Dir District when troops destroyed the house of a local administration official, which the Taliban had occupied.

11 militants and four SF personnel were killed in clashes in the Swat District as troops dropped from helicopters on May 12 gained a toehold in Peuchar, the Taliban headquarters. In addition, five beheaded bodies were found in and around the Mingora city on May 13. Further, there were reports of 24 casualties, including 18 militants, in Lower Dir District. The Swat Media Centre (SMC) said 11 militants, including ‘commander’ Naseebur Rahman, were killed in the ongoing military operation against Maulana Fazlullah-led militants in Swat. The SMC said four soldiers were also killed and 12 others sustained injuries during operations in the preceding 24 hours. Though there was no official account, local sources on May 13 reported the killing of 24 people, including six civilians. They said an attack on a veterinary dispensary in the Kethiari area of Adenzai left 12 militants dead. In Tandodag and Berarai areas, there were reports about the killing of six militants and as many civilians.

Reports from Mingora and Peshawar, quoting Frontier Corps (FC) sources, said SFs killed 13 militants in the Torwarsak area of Buner District, while there were reports about the killing of 37 Taliban militants in an assault in the Gulabad area of Dir Lower District and four others in Swat on May 12. Six bodies were found in parts of Swat Valley, while one person was shot dead in Kanju. The SFs said four militants were killed in a clash triggered by Taliban’s firing at Mamdherai. Further, six beheaded bodies of unidentified persons were recovered from Suhrab Khan Chowk, Peopleís Chowk, Rahimabad, Landikas and Green Chowk. Arshad Kanju, a resident of Kanju, was shot dead by unidentified gunmen. Fierce clashes between militants and the SFs were reported from Gulabad and Chakdara towns of Dir Lower. Sources said 37 militants were killed in an attack on Government Degree College Gulabad, which was occupied by militants. Sources said that 17 bodies were recovered from the building, damaged in clashes. One soldier was also reported to have been killed in the clashes. Nine militants, including a commander, were arrested in Chakdara and Gulabad.

SFs claimed to have killed 52 militants in the Swat District during the preceding 24 hours, while 31 persons, including three civilians, were killed in Lower Dir District on May 11. Three soldiers were also killed and 14 others wounded in Swat. In addition, seven bodies, including one of a prayer leader at a mosque, were found in different towns of Swat Valley. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, May 12-18, 2009.

23 militants among 66 persons killed during the week in FATA: Nine Taliban militants were killed and 13 others wounded when the Security Forces (SFs) attacked Taliban hideouts in the Upper Orakzai Agency on May 16, 2009. SFs targeted Taliban hideouts in Dabori, headquarters of Upper Orakzai, using helicopter gunships. Locals said all the dead were local militants and that no key Taliban commander was killed in the attack. Further, 25 people were killed in a suspected US drone missile attack on a seminary and a nearby vehicle in North Waziristan on May 16. US drones reportedly fired two missiles in Mir Ali sub-division, with one missile hitting the Anwarul Uloom Islamia seminary and the other a vehicle. "It was a drone strike on a compound where militants were staying," an unnamed security official told AFP. Other intelligence officials put the death toll as high as 28, saying the dead were mostly local militants who had been preparing to leave for Afghanistan to carry out attacks. The officials added, however, that the bodies of most of those killed were burnt beyond recognition.

Three soldiers were killed and four others sustained injuries when their convoy came under a bomb attack near Miranshah in North Waziristan on May 14. Troops besieged Pir Kala, about 10 kilometres north of Miranshah, and fired on suspected militant positions. Helicopter gunships were called in to support ground forces. According to local people, militants fired back and the ensuing exchange of fire continued for over three hours. Separately, three militants, including a local Taliban ‘commander’, were killed in a bomb blast in the Sheikhan area of the Khwezai subdivision of Mohmand Agency on May 14. SFs on May 14 also killed five militants in the North Waziristan Agency after a military convoy was targeted with an improvised explosive device (IED) in the Pir Killay area, in which three soldiers were killed and four others sustained injuries. Sources said the SFs convoy was on its way to Bannu in NWFP from Miranshah when it was attacked with the IED, leaving three soldiers dead and four others injured. The troops retaliated by resorting to artillery shelling at the militants’ positions from the Miranshah Tochi Fort, killing five militants.

12 people were killed in a US drone attack in South Waziristan Agency near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border on May 12. Tribal sources said six, or possibly more, missiles were fired at three to four houses at Sunrai Zyara Leeta border village at 8 am. One of the houses was destroyed and others were damaged. An unnamed senior Government official claimed the targeted compounds were being used by local militants as a training and transit camp to launch attacks in Afghanistan. He conceded there was no Government presence in the area. He also had no information about the identity of those killed and injured.

A Taliban commander close to Baitullah Mehsud was among six people found dead from various areas of South Waziristan on May 11 – two months after the men went missing, Daily Times reported. The bullet-riddled body of commander Tikka Khan Burki – the Taliban chief for Salayrogha area in upper Kaniguram region – was found in Karwanmanza area of Ladah sub-division. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, May 12-18, 2009.

834,000 civilians displaced by fighting in NWFP, says UN: More than 834,000 civilians have fled the recent military operation in the NWFP, the UN refugee agency chief said on May 14, 2009. The figure was an increase of more than 163,000 people registered since May 13, as families piled onto trucks and tractors, or streamed on foot out of the affected Districts to hastily set up camps. "Some 834,000 internally displaced persons have been registered so far. This is a massive, massive displacement in today’s world," said the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres. Daily Times, May 15, 2009.

Jama’at-ud-Da’awa active in Swat District under a new name: The Jama’at-ud-Da’awa (JuD, the front for Lashkar-e-Toiba [LeT]), designated by the United Nations Security Council as a terrorist outfit in the wake of the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, has resurfaced as a charity organisation providing food and other relief to the thousands of people fleeing the fighting in Swat District. Eyewitnesses said that the JuD was active in Mardan, where most of the refugee camps are located. They were distributing food and medical care. One eyewitness, who visited the area on May 9, 2009, said JuD workers were organised under a charity organisation called Falah-i-Insaniyat. They had set themselves up at a roundabout in Mardan town called College Chowk, where they were collecting food donations for the displaced. Despite the Government crackdown on the group after the U.N. designation, the canopied stall was openly flying the black-and-white flags of the JuD, with the insignia of the sword and the Kalma, the Islamic doctrine of faith. The organisation has also set up a relief distribution centre at a village called Rustam, on the outskirts of Buner. The Hindu, May 14, 2009.

11 persons killed in suicide attack on Frontier Constabulary camp in NWFP: 11 people were killed and 13 others injured on May 11, 2009, in a suicide attack on a camp of the Frontier Constabulary (FC) in the Spina Thana area of Darra Adamkhel. The banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Darra Adamkhel chapter, claimed responsibility for the attack, saying more suicide attacks would be carried out if the military operation was not stopped in Swat and other parts of the country. 12 shops, a car, a coach and two trailers were also destroyed in the blast. Eyewitnesses said a white double-cabin pick-up narrowly missed the FC camp and went off at the entrance of the military establishment. They said the explosives-laden vehicle was driven by a young man. Police said around 200 kilograms of explosive material was loaded sin the car. Spina Thana is located between Matani village of Peshawar and the gun-manufacturing town of Darra Adamkhel. The News, May 12, 2009.

More than 500 militants killed in the week during military operations in NWFP: The Security Forces (SFs) said on May 10, 2009, they had killed up to 200 Taliban militants in 24 hours during the on-going operation in Swat even as they secured Shangla Top and important towns and ridges in the Dir and Buner Districts. Troops engaged the Taliban in their Peochar headquarters and at hideouts in Kanju, Mingora, Banai Baba, Namal, Qambar, Fizagath, Tiligram and Chamtalai, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in an update. The ISPR claimed that 140-150 militants were killed in an attack on the Banai Baba training camp in Shangla and 50-60 militants were killed in different areas of Swat Valley.

SFs killed 55 Taliban militants in various areas of Swat on May 9, while 14 militants were killed in Lower Dir District after helicopter gunships targeted the Maidan area. "We have hit certain militant positions in Mingora with helicopter gunships," said military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas. "The Taliban were harassing the civil population and intensely involved in various activities of looting and arson in the city of Mingora and, in an early morning attack, helicopters engaged militant hideouts and reportedly left 15 militants dead," Abbas added.

The SFs killed more than 140 Taliban militants across the Swat valley on May 8. Seven soldiers were also killed as the SFs took control of Khawazakhela and Chamtalai, military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said in a media briefing. He said the military had launched a "full-scale operation" in Swat and the Taliban militants were on the run.

Jet fighters and helicopter gunships targeted Taliban hideouts and centres in various parts of the Swat and Lower Dir Districts on May 7, killing 60 Taliban militants. "We have carried out airstrikes today on known centres of militants, killing around 60 [Taliban] in Swat and Lower Dir," said chief military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas. In Lower Dir, District administration officials said the Taliban abducted 11 paramilitary troops after attacking the Malakand Levies Fort in Chakdara. They said three soldiers had been killed in the attack. The SFs on May 7 also killed a son of the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) chief Maulana Sufi Muhammad, in a clash with the Taliban in Lower Dir District. During an exchange of fire, 10 militants, including Kifayatullah – son of Sufi Muhammad – was killed, a military statement said. Earlier, in a bid to recapture the Government buildings seized by the Taliban, SFs on May 6 targeted militants’ strongholds with helicopter gunships and artillery, killing 60 militants. In the daylong fighting across Swat District, 40 civilians and two Frontier Corps soldiers were also killed. During clashes between the SFs and militants in Swat on May 5, at least 18 persons, including three militants and two SF personnel, were killed and 20 others sustained injuries. Sources said clashes occurred in Mingora city, Khwazakhela, Barikot and Shamozai areas, while heavy shelling was witnessed in Qambar area.

22 militants were killed on May 6 after the paramilitary forces raided Elahi village in the Buner District. "The Frontier Corps [FC] on Wednesday conducted a raid in the village of Elahi, located west of Daggar, killing 22 militants," the FC said in a statement. "Reportedly, 50 militants were looting the villagers and on receiving this information, a force was sent to control them. After a stiff encounter, 22 militants were killed and the rest of them ran away," the FC stated. The death toll, however, could not be independently confirmed due to the ongoing military operation. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, May 5-11, 2009.

69 militants killed in FATA during the week: On May 10, 2009, 26 Taliban militants were killed in a three-hour encounter that followed a Taliban attack on a Frontier Corps (FC) camp in the Ambar Valley of Mohmand Agency and 18 militants were killed when troops retaliated to an attack on their convoy in South Waziristan. In Mohmand, about 150 heavily armed militants launched a midnight attack on an FC camp in the Had area. Four FC soldiers were also injured during the ensuing encounter. In South Waziristan, the Taliban attacked a security convoy in the Spin area south of Tanai. An officer, Captain Muneeb, also died in the attack.

Four missiles fired by a suspected US drone killed an unspecified number of Taliban militants in South Waziristan on May 9. While officials claimed that 10 militants had been killed, a deputy Taliban commander said five were killed. However, tribesmen claimed they had counted 25 dead bodies.

15 Taliban militants and two SF personnel were killed in a Taliban attack on the Spinki Tangi check-post in Mohmand Agency, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said on May 5. It also said six of the troops had gone missing after the Taliban attacked the check-post around 3:30 am on May 5. The SFs retaliated by targeting Taliban hideouts in the Baizai and Safi sub-divisions of Mohmand Agency. However, no casualties were reported. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, May 5-11, 2009.

Prime Minister declares all-out war against militants: Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani on May 7, 2009, ordered the armed forces to launch an operation against the militants and terrorists so as to flush them out completely from Swat and Malakand in order to ensure security, restore honour and dignity of the homeland, and for the protection of the people. "The Government will not bow before the militants and terrorists but will force them to lay down their weapons and will not compromise with them," he said in his 20-minute televised address to the nation on May 7. Before addressing the nation, he reportedly had extensive discussions with the civil and military leadership. On May 6, he held a lengthy meeting with Chief of the Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani while on May 7 he held meetings with Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman, and parliamentarians belonging to Swat and Malakand Division. Following these meetings, Gilani addressed the nation, announcing the launching of an operation against the militants. In his 20-minute speech, the Prime Minister also appealed to the nation, political leadership, civil society, religious leaders and all the institutions of the country to lend their complete support to the Government and the armed forces for the cause of Pakistan. The News, May 8, 2009.

137 Taliban militants killed during military operations in Buner District: Brigadier Fayyaz Mehmood Qamar, who is in-charge of military operations in the Buner District of NWFP, said on May 3, 2009, that the operations would be completed within a week. Briefing the media at the District headquarters, Daggar, he said Security Forces (SFs) killed 27 suicide attackers on May 2, 2009. Three SF personnel were also killed in the operation. SFs had earlier killed 60 Taliban militants in the Buner District of NWFP over the preceding 24 hours, as helicopter gunships shelled suspected hideouts, Daily Times reported on May 2. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations spokesman, Major General Athar Abbas, "Nearly 55 to 60 Taliban have been killed over the last 24 hours in the Buner operation." He informed the media that two Frontier Corps personnel had also been killed and eight injured in the operation, which entered its fourth day on May 1.

Earlier, troops took control of the main Daggar town, headquarters of Buner, on April 29, after being dropped by helicopters behind the Taliban lines, killing over 50 militants in two days of fighting. Troops operated on three axis – Ambaila, Malandar and Karakar – military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas told reporters in Rawalpindi. "Two high-value targets — Maulvi Shahid and Qari Quresh — are among the 50 militants killed so far in Buner, when gunship helicopters targeted militants’ positions during the operation launched on Tuesday afternoon," Abbas stated. "The security forces are facing stiff resistance, particularly around Ambaila heights," a key gateway to the mountainous region where the Taliban detonated three roadside bombs, he said. The military estimated some 500 militants were in the Buner Valley and that it might take a week to clear them out. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, April 30-May 4, 2009.

TNSM rejects Darul Qaza appellate court set up by the NWFP Government: The banned Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) – which had promised to ensure peace in Swat District in return for the establishment of Sharia (Islamic courts) – on May 3, 2009, rejected the Darul Qaza appellate court set up by the NWFP Government. Ameer Izzat Khan, the chief spokesman for TNSM chief Maulana Sufi Muhammad, said the Government had acted unilaterally in establishing the Darul Qaza and had violated the peace agreement. He said it had been decided in a May 1 meeting between the provincial Government and TNSM in Timergara, that the former would first announce an end to the operations in Malakand following which the Taliban would declare a cease-fire.

Meanwhile, the Swat peace deal stands dissolved and the militants present in Swat, Matta, Kabal and Sangla as well as their commanders have asked for permission to fight everywhere, sources told The News on May 3. "Our peace agreement with the NWFP government practically stands dissolved," confirmed Muslim Khan, a spokesman for the Swat chapter of the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Security Forces (SFs) are attacking us and our fighters are also retaliating, he said. Daily Times; The News, May 4, 2009.

Next two weeks critical to Pakistani Government’s survival, says CENTCOM chief General David Petraeus: Commander of the US Central Command, General David Petraeus, has told American officials that the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani Government will survive, FOX News reported on April 30, 2009. "The Pakistanis have run out of excuses" and are "finally getting serious" about combating the threat from Taliban and al Qaeda extremists operating out of northwest Pakistan, he added. But Petraeus also said "we’ve heard it all before" from the Pakistanis and he is looking to see concrete action by the Government to destroy the Taliban in the next two weeks before determining the United States’ next course of action. The News, May 2, 2009.

75 militants and ten soldiers killed during military operations in Lower Dir District of NWFP: The Inter-Services Public Relations Director General, Major General Athar Abbas, told a news conference in Rawalpindi on April 28, 2009, that the military operation in Lower Dir District of NWFP, which started on April 26, had been completed. "The operation in Dir has successfully been completed, during which 70 to 75 militants were killed," he said. Ten personnel of the Security Forces were also killed during the operation. He said over 300 militants had started entering Lower Dir on April 2 and 3. Despite warning from the Government officials, they did not stop their unlawful activities, he added. "They were involved in kidnapping for ransom, killing Police and other security officials and other unlawful acts," he said. He also said no foreign militant was found during the Dir operation. Daily Times, April 29, 2009.

[South Asia Intelligent Review]