South Asian Outlook : An Independent e-Monthly | South Asia: Nepal

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Surreptitious Revolution

Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Maoist objective in Nepal is not the sharing of power. It is the seizure of power. This is the reality that will crystallize over the coming months and years.

- "The Seduction of Process", South Asia Intelligence Review,
Volume 5, No. 18, November 13, 2006

New evidence of the Maoist's real intent – to capture the state through the democratic process – came to light at Kathmandu, even as the fragile political détente in Nepal disintegrated. The unsuccessful attempt by the Maoists to get rid of the Army Chief and the subsequent exit of Prime Minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal aka Prachanda over the issue, as the Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist-Leninist and the Sadhbhavana Party withdrew support to his Government, led to the collapse of the nine-month old regime, once again pushing the country into a grave crisis. Whatever the outcome, it is now abundantly clear that the Maoist engagement with democracy is purely tactical and is only a stop-gap arrangement to secure the complete subversion of parliamentary democracy in Nepal.

After failing to get his way against the Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) General Rookmangud Katawal, Prime Minister Prachanda, announced his resignation on May 4. The announcement came after the President, Dr. Ram Baran Yadav, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces, asked the CoAS to continue in office, overriding the Maoist decision to dismiss him. The President, issuing a statement, said the CoAS’ dismissal by the Cabinet did not "meet the constitutional requirements and due process."

Prachanda, in his address to the nation, described the President’s move as "unconstitutional". He added that it was no longer appropriate for him to remain in the Government, when there clearly existed "two ruling powers (executive and President)" in the country. Saying that a constitutional President had no right to block the decisions of an elected Government, he rued that the Presidential decision had "dealt a serious blow to democracy, peace process and the newly established republican order."

Prachanda did try to seize the moral high ground, speaking of civilian supremacy over the Army, while underlining the democratic values that the Maoists claimed to believe in. But the rhetoric made little sense within the realities of the Maoist end goal in Nepal.

The current crisis surfaced when the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (Unified CPN-Maoist) led Government, having clear intensions of removing the CoAS’ sought, a clarification from General Katawal on April 20, within 24-hours, for "disobedience of the Government decisions" on three issues – recruitment in the Army, extension of the tenure of eight Brigadiers, and the Army’s withdrawal from some of the events at the Fifth National Games in which the Maoist People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was participating. The CoAS did reply to the accusation and, predictably, his response was not found to be satisfactory.

The main opposition party, the Nepali Congress (NC) did caution the Maoists not to sack the General. Other political parties, prominently including the CPN-UML, also voiced their concern. President Yadav cautioned the Maoists not to take such a controversial step without political consensus. However, the Maoist Central Secretariat, in its meeting on April 30, asked its leadership to go ahead with the plan to sack the General.

It was a unilateral decision. The Cabinet meeting that discussed the proposal had been boycotted by the CPN-UML (with 103 seats in the CA), the Sadbhawana Party (with nine seats), and the CPN-Sanyukta (with five seats, while the the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (with 50 seats) issued a note of dissent. The Cabinet decision to sack General Katawal and to appoint second-in-command Lt. Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka to act as CoAS was, in effect, the decision of a minority Government.

Significantly, General Katawal is due to retire in September 2009, while Lt. Gen. Khadka, who is in favour of the Maoist plan to integrate the PLA with the NA, is due to retire in June 2009. The Maoist plan was, evidently, to get rid of General Katawal and then retain Lt. Gen. Khadka as the CoAS by granting the latter an extension on the calculus that he would facilitate the integration process the Maoists fervently desired.

The other political parties in Nepal, however, quickly closed ranks. At least 20 of the 24 political parties in the country pleaded with the President to undo the Cabinet decision to prevent a total capture of power by the Maoists. President Yadav, after consultation with various political parties and constitutional experts, nullified the Cabinet decision.

The Maoists argued that the decision to sack the CoAS was necessary to assert civilian supremacy over the Army. The fact, however, remained that the decision had much to do with General Katawal’s stubborn opposition to the integration of Maoist armed cadres into the Army, a key Maoist objective.

The Maoist design was fully confirmed with the surfacing of the videotape of an address by Maoist Chairman Prachanda and now former Prime Minister, to PLA combatants, which was telecast by the Kathmandu-based Image Channel in the afternoon of May 3. The video grabs were of a meeting held at Shaktikhor cantonment in Chitwan District on January 2, 2008, when the Maoists were an important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala led Interim Government. The centrality of the plan to integrate Maoist combatants with the Nepal Army within the broader strategy of capturing national power unfolds as Prachanda chalks out the over all scheme of the revolution.

We will have integration in a way that decreases the size of the Army. From the start I have said that we do not need such a large Army. Let’s keep it between 30,000 and 50,000. Ours may drop from 20,000 to 10,000, let’s just say. You heard what Katawal said the other day. Even if the Army absorbs only 3,000 Maoist combatants, the whole Army will be perished (sic). Did you read that? He said a mere 3,000 could destroy 100 000. That’s true. If we are going to place 10,000 combatants in the Army we will introduce our agenda there at that time. The issue is not about more or less. It is about awareness. We have concepts policies and vision. They do nothing but bang their boots. The aware ones will eat up the boot bangers. The 3,000 will swallow the rest. If there are no elections we will capture power through movement. We will first capture power and then work on integration. We will not throw all of them as it will be necessary to keep some of them. We will reduce them systematically and bring the Army under our leadership. You express worries about continuation of the revolution. This is how it will happen. It will happen in a new way. Please don’t look for examples from Russia or China or Vietnam or Cuba. Our solution will be specific to Nepal, but it will happen. Integration will happen this way. It will not happen one-by-one on an individual basis. We will do it unit wise. Our battalions and theirs will be separate under one command. Our peoples will also be in command. The plan is to democratise the Army which means to politicise the Army. It will take 5 to 7 years for that. If we are really going to have integration the way to do it is unit-wise so that our units remain with us. This is important if we do it unit wise. We can react if we are betrayed.

Speaking about the significance of having an Army, Prachanda continues,

…because we have thousands in the PLA no body has the guts to challenge us… our actions in Baluwatar Singha Durbar, inside and outside the country are successful only because of you. Without you no body will listen to us. Because we have an Army every body is petrified, even now NC and UML don’t want to admit it but they feel the fear. Earlier today UML’s Bamdev called saying that our friends in Karve had badly beaten up their party workers. I said yours are hardly better. They beat up us yesterday (sic). His reply was "we can hardly hurt you. Yours are well trained and they beat hard". They are frightened by us, every body is.

Having explained the significance of having an Army, Prachanda goes on to explain how the leadership fooled the UNMIN to inflate the cadre strength.

…you say our number has decreased. That’s not true. Our Army has grown significantly. You must understand strategy and tactics. Tell me how many of us were there earlier? Speaking honestly we were few earlier. We were 7,000 to 8,000. If we had reported that, our number would have reduced to 4,000 after verification. Instead, we claimed 35,000 and now we are 20,000. This is the truth. How can any one say our numbers have reduced? Look how wisely our party leadership took a 7,000-person Army and made it a 20,000-person regular Army. And outside we have created the YCL infrastructure and we have thousands in YCL. So we have built a lot. It is true that there are some complexities but they are still strengths. About our friends who did not make it through the verification process, there is a fear that they are done. Bur arrangements will be made. Revolution is not yet complete.

Talking further about the Maoist role in Government, he asks,

How is today’s situation different from during the people’s war? Talking of form, earlier you were holding the machine gun and, killing or being killed. Today it seems like we are chatting and sipping tea. The form is very different but the gist is still the same. We are both taking the revolution forward…

Prachanda also elaborated on the ways of raising money for the revolution:

We have said that for elections (Constituent Assembly) to happen, the martyrs’ families must receive relief, information on the disappeared must be gathered, the injured must receive relief and the combatants be paid. Elections cannot happen without these conditions. Over the last three-four months, the world has been repeating our formula. It has been accepted all over, they have been saying that the Maoists are right on this. This is great for us. This will take us to the top. When we will say that we will not go for election without money for the martyrs’ families they all say yes, now a relief package is being promised to the martyrs’ families by Magh (January/February) for now this is to be NR 100,000 though the full compensation is NR 1,000, 000. Now don’t think this is just money. It is politics. We will distribute this money in mass meetings. We will make plan from the top and go District to District. All of this is not preparation for election. It is preparation for revolution. With the money our relationship with people will improve. They will feel this is their party and we will say one lakh (100,000) is not enough. We will bring nine lakh more. Of course we will not say ‘take it and go home’. Now about the 60 crore (1 crore = 10 million) for the cantonment, we need money for the revolt. Remember my point about the need for 10 crore to bring it all in a truck. We need money for what the truck carries. No body gives it for free. We don’t have enough money for that. Of the 60 crore you will take a little bit and about 20 crore will come to us. Just imagine the preparation with 20 crore. To make good battle plans we need money. With lots of money we can make good plans. So, if you only look at the form, it may look like the party is heading towards agreement. Look deeper and you will understand how the brave party is preparing for revolt.

The authenticity of the video tapes has since been confirmed by Prachanda himself, though he maintains that the scandal is a "ploy against the peace process", claiming that the context within which these remarks were made was different, and has since changed.

Nevertheless, given the evident centrality of the integration of the Maoist combatants into the Nepal Army to the larger Maoist game plan, Prachanda had to take General Katawal head on. However, choosing to resign instead of exploring other options and painting his plight as the result of a conspiracy of ‘foreign powers’ (his close associate Baburam Bhattarai was quite unambiguous in blaming India), Prachanda has sought to whip up popular sentiment in favour of his party. He has also attempted to neutralize the possibility of any future military coup, against the backdrop of intense rumours of a ‘soft coup’ by the Army.

The Maoists have decided to agitate in Parliament and in the streets, until their decision to sack the CoAS is implemented. The Constituent Assembly members of the party have decided not to allow any business in Parliament until President Yadav apologises before the House for his decision to ‘reinstate’ the Army Chief.

There is no respite from the Maoists in Nepal. The President’s initiative, currently being challenged in the Supreme Court and in the streets, may provide temporary relief, but Nepal’s politics is almost certain to be overwhelmed by new Maoist moves in the near future. The Maoists remain a troubling reality in Nepal. Sadly, the fractured and discredited political class in the country hold little hope for the coherent evolution of a democratic and constitutional order in the foreseeable future.

[South Asia Intelligent Review]

News Briefs

Madhav Kumar Nepal elected as Prime Minister: Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Communist Party of Nepal – United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) will be sworn-in as the Prime Minister of Nepal on May 25, 2009, after being elected unopposed on May 23. Meanwhile, the CPN-UML's Standing Committee has decided to constitute a committee to hold consultations with leaders of allied parties regarding portfolios, and to work out the Common Minimum Programme, party leader Shanker Pokharel told PTI. The party has appealed to all political outfits to extend cooperation to the new Government to complete the peace process and to draft a new constitution. The Hindu, May 25, 2009.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal resigns: Nine months after he was elected the first Prime Minister (PM) of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, Pushpa Kamal Dahal announced his resignation on May 4, 2009. Later, President Ram Baran Yadav approved the resignation and said the current Council of Ministers would continue its work. In an address to the nation, the PM said, "to resolve this difficult situation and to create a positive environment to save democracy, nationalism, and peace process, I announce my resignation." The announcement came after the President, who is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, asked the Chief of the Army Staff (CoAS), General Rookmangud Katawal, to continue in office. In a statement, the President said the Army Chief’s dismissal by the Cabinet on May 3 did not "meet the constitutional requirements and due process." The Hindu, May 5, 2009.

Nepalese Army Chief dismissed: The Maoist-led coalition Government removed the Chief of Army Staff, General Rookmangud Katawal, on May 3, 2009. The major coalition partner, the Communist Party of Nepal (UML), has consequently withdrawn support to the Government. Two weeks ago, the Government asked for a clarification from General Katawal, saying he violated its orders on three issues — recruitment in the Nepalese Army, extension of eight Army brigadiers’ tenure, and the Army’s withdrawal from six events in which it had to play against the People’s Liberation Army (the Maoists’ Army) in the Fifth National Games. The Government felt that the Army Chief disregarded civilian supremacy and challenged the Maoist-led Government. The Defence Ministry gave General Katawal 24 hours to clarify. Two weeks later, the Government concluded that the clarification General Katawal submitted was not satisfactory and a Cabinet meeting on May 3 decided to dismiss him.

Government spokesperson Krishna Bahadur Mahara told reporters that "Until an arrangement is made, General Kul Bahadur Khadka will work as acting Army Chief." The Cabinet meeting was boycotted by several parties, including the CPN-UML, the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum and the Sadbhavana Party Nepal, supporters of the coalition Government that was formed in August 2008, saying it was the Maoists’ decision alone. Later, the UML’s central committee meeting decided to pull out from the Government. The Hindu, May 3, 2009.

[South Asia Intelligent Review]