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ERIC
WALBERG (IDN)  |
NATO-RUSSIA:
Dangerous Games – No Fun
As
Russian troops marched to celebrate the victory over Nazi Germany May 8,
NATO troops - 1,300 of them from ten member countries and six
"partners"- were beginning their month-long Cooperative
Longbow/Lancer war "games" on Russia's southern border.
In deference to Moscow, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Serbia decided
not to participate in the NATO exercises, preferring to send their
diplomats to Red Square in homage to the untold Russian sacrifice in
pursuit of world peace. According to Russian MP Sergei Abeltsev, the
NATO decision to hold the drills in Georgia during the WWII Victory Day
celebrations was a "total revision of the history of the Great
Patriotic War".
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The
games were greeted by Georgian troops with a coup attempt against their
beleaguered President Mikheil Saakashvili, though there is speculation
that this was something dreamed up by the Georgian president himself (he
has done stranger things, like declaring war on Russia).
This latest bizarre twist, the argument goes, gives him ammunition in
his battle with protesters - they have been demanding his resignation
for over a month and vow to keep protesting till he is gone. Lucky for
Saak, riot police are still loyal to him and broke up an anti-NATO rally
by thousands converging on parliament on the eve of the games.
According to Russian Ambassador to NATO Dmitri Rogozin, Saakashvili
"has long been aiming to bring Georgia's domestic conflict to the
international level. It's for this reason that he shot down our military
- to draw us into the August war. It's for this reason that he wanted
American marines to come to Georgia, to draw Americans into that war.
This man is dangerous for the world," Rogozin said.
In support of the U.S. darling, Democratic Senator John Kerry and
Republican Congressman David Dreier (note the bipartisan unity) are
calling for a free trade agreement with Georgia.
NATO is busy as a bee these days. Apart from its centrepiece,
Afghanistan, where deaths of both Afghans and occupiers are increasing
daily, and practising for God-knows-what in Georgia, it was recently
flexing its naval muscle in neighbouring Turkey, where delegates from 27
countries just wrapped up NATO's annual Maritime Commanders Meeting (MARCOMET
2009).
Its theme this year was "The Future Security Environment -
Implications for Navies" and was focused on terrorism, piracy and
conflicts deriving from energy and resources issues. No doubt it will be
deploying forces on the Horn of Africa soon pursuing those pesky
pirates.
Prague has also been a hive of activity. It hosted a meeting of the
Eastern Partnership (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine and
Moldova ) May 7, followed by a summit dubbed "Southern Corridor -
New Silk Road of European and Central Asian countries", seeking a
non-Russian route for gas imports from Central Asia.
The summit participants included Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Iraq and Turkey. The Czech EU official
said that after years of wavering, Europe had no time to lose in
securing alternatives to Russian gas.
If the intent in all this is to make Russia mad, it is working. On the
first day of the Georgian military exercise, Russia expelled two NATO
envoys. Rogozin stated that his country would not attend a NATO military
meeting planned for that week.
Russian lawmaker Sergei Abeltsev has floated the idea of a response to
the NATO move that would entail Cuba and Venezuela taking part in
"large-scale drills" in the Caribbean Sea on July 2. Nicaragua
intends to buy Russian aircraft and helicopters for its armed forces,
and will be sure to join in.
The battleground between East and West these days thus includes not only
Georgia, but the Czech Republic, Poland and the Baltics. Not only is
U.S. President Barack Obama continuing Bush's policy of provoking Russia
in Georgia, but he made no indication in his first 100 days that he
would reverse the planned Star Wars missile bases in the Czech Republic
and Poland.
Fortunately grassroots Czech opposition to the proposed base resulted in
the defeat of the conservative government and it looks like the Czech
base will not go ahead. Strong opposition in Poland has so far not
managed to make a similar political inroad.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the U.S. of using the
Iran issue as a pretext to set up its missile shield in Russia's
backyard. "The way it is designed has nothing to do with Iran's
nuclear programme. It is aimed at Russian strategic forces, deployed in
the European part of the Russian Federation," Lavrov told Euronews.
"We are being very frank about this with our American colleagues
and hope that our arguments are heard. Iran's nuclear programme is a
separate issue. We approach it according to a key principal - preventing
the spread of weapons of mass destruction."
As if the Czech government's anti-Russian conferences and the war games
aren't enough, the Czech air force are now "protecting" the
airspace of the three Baltic NATO members, the first time that the Czech
military's tactical air force has been deployed in a foreign operation
since the end of WWII. The Czech aircraft will be ready to take action
in case of a military threat to the Baltic countries and to provide them
with help.
But what "threat" is there in the Baltics, other than one
invented by trigger-happy NATO planners playing yet more war
"games" with Russia?
This scheming has not gone unnoticed by Moscow. "We are not afraid
of anything, including the prospect of a new Cold War, but we don't want
one," Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said recently.
In The Grand Chessboard (1997) Zbigniew Brzezinski predicted that the
only countries Russia could convince to join a defence pact might be
Belarus and Tajikistan. But the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) founded in 2002 in reaction to NATO expansion eastward now
includes not only Belarus and Tajikistan, but Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Armenia.
It, along with the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), the
Russia-Belarus Union State and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
are natural developments by countries concerned about what the US and
NATO are really up to. Russian General Leonid Ivashov, vice-president of
the Academy of Geopolitical Science, says there is a need "to
neutralise the spread of NATO's influence not only to Central Asia but
also to East and Southeast Asia," adding that this "won't be
of an aggressive or offensive nature; it will be a deterrent."
Relations with the SCO are developing, and just a few months ago, it was
reported that the CSTO will have its own Joint Rapid Reaction Force
which could be used to protect its members from military aggression,
defend critical infrastructure and fight terrorism and organised crime.
Russia and Kazakhstan are the key movers in the CSTO and managed to
obtain a 25 per cent growth in this year’s budget.
There are problems. First, the stand-off between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
with the latter inching towards NATO membership in reaction to Russian
support for the former. And then there's Uzbekistan. President Islam
Karimov was initially very pro-U.S. and anti-Russian, but after being
spurned by the West over the brutal suppression of demonstrations in
2005, he quickly made up with Russia and even joined the CSTO in 2006.
However, human rights have never interfered with U.S. strategic thinking
in the past, and there are signs that Karimov is flirting with the West
once again. He has also signed a military cooperation agreement with
Azerbaijan, and is withdrawing from EurAsEC, adding to the confusion.
What Moscow would really like is for Ukraine to join the CSTO. And why
not? If such pacts are truly defensive, then this makes perfect sense.
What conceivable role does NATO play so far from the Atlantic, except as
a forward base for the U.S.? Ukraine in the CSTO would give it clout
where it counts - with its big and vital neighbour. Ukraine in NATO can
only be a serious cause of tension with Russia. As Egyptians say,
"Your neighbour is closer than your mother."
While things look grim these days from Moscow, the EU/NATO machinations
are far from yielding results. Euro "partners" Armenia and
Azerbaijan are in a state of war; Belarus and Moldova leaders have no
illusions about Euro intentions and did not attend the EP fest in
Prague, despite the 600 million euros being thrown around. And signs of
reaction to NATO’s nosiness are setting in.
In a poll by the U.S. government funded International Republican
Institute (IRI) only 63 per cent of Georgian respondents back NATO
accession, down from the 87 per cent the IRI recorded last September.
Keep in mind the bias of an organisation like the IRI and imagine likely
statistics if such a poll were carried out by a real NGO like, say, the
Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament or StopNATO. What is telling in the IRI
poll is the massive shift away from NATO membership in the past six
months.
And then there's Ukraine. The district council of its second largest
city, Kharkov, has just called for a ban on all NATO-related
organisations and activities pending a nationwide referendum on Kiev's
membership in the alliance. A statement circulated by the council has
denounced any violations of Ukraine's bloc-free status. The protest by
the deputies followed the opening in April this year of a Euro-Atlantic
cooperation (read: NATO) centre at Economics and Law University in
Kharkov.
Obama has yet to make any of the hard choices he faces. He caved in to
the bankers, and his health plan is being vetted by the health insurance
industry to prevent the single-payer system, by far the cheapest and
most comprehensive. He appears to be letting the Bush torturers off the
hook and continuing their wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But he can't
finesse Russia so easily. Russia will not cooperate on Afghanistan or
arms treaties if he continues the foolish and dangerous meddling in
Eastern Europe under the pretence of supporting "democracy and
freedom".
The current games can only be interpreted by Moscow as a replay -
hopefully farcical - of the Nazis in Georgia in WWII, which will
strengthen their resolve to keep the enemy at bay.
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Eric Walberg is a journalist and writer
specialising in the Middle East, Russia and Central Asia, and a
long-time peace activist. He writes for Al-Ahram Weekly in Cairo, Egypt
and welcomes your comments at www.geocities.com/walberg2002/.
(End/23-04-09)
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