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ERIC
WALBERG (IDN)  |
BRIC
and SCO May Usher In A New World
The
world would appear to be discarding its sixty-year old framework, though
the two historic summits, BRIC and SCO, in Yekaterinburg that marks the
geographical beginning of Russian Asia, elicited only a collective yawn
from most media, says Eric Walberg adding that in case Obama hasn’t
noticed, Eurasia is coalescing, not around littler Georgia and big
brother Poland, with their pretensions as forward bases for the mighty
U.S. empire, but around China, Russia and India.
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Yekaterinburg,
famous tragically as the spot Lenin chose to have the Tsar and his
family executed in 1918, and ironically as the fiefdom of Boris Yeltsin,
who finished off the Russian revolution itself in 1991, witnessed
something no less remarkable June 15 and 16, when leaders of the
so-called BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) held their
first summit, following the yearly meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO).
The BRIC countries comprise 15 per cent of the world economy, 40 per
cent of global currency reserves and half the world’s population.
Brazil, India and China have also weathered the financial crisis better
than the world as a whole.
Holding the two meetings together meant that Indian Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh attended the SCO for the first time. The SCO, Russian and
China’s Eurasian security organization, has become a key counterweight
to U.S. hegemony in the world, and Russia and China are eager to have
India upgrade its position of observer to member.
This summit appeared to have coaxed India a step closer, as the SCO
security agenda has shifted its emphasis to the growing security threat
from Afghanistan, which satisfies the more pro-U.S. India.
But the headline-stealer was the BRIC summit. While the U.S. plays its
tiresome geopolitical games on Russia's eastern borders, Russian
President Dmitri Medvedev was busy charting a new economic and political
reality in the heart of Eurasia.
"The artificially maintained unipolar system," he lectured, is
based on "one big centre of consumption, financed by a growing
deficit and ... one formerly strong reserve currency." At the root
of the global financial crisis, he concluded, is that the U.S. makes too
little and spends too much.
Especially upsetting for Russia is its continued military largesse to
Georgia, the missile shield in Eastern Europe and its invasions of Iraq
and Afghanistan. "The summit must create the conditions for a
fairer world order," he read out, as Presidents Hu Jintao of China,
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil and the Indian prime minister looked
on approvingly.
CHINA-RUSSIA
China backs Russia's two big gripes with the U.S.: "The security of
some states cannot be ensured at the expense of others, including the
expansion of military-political alliances or the creation of global or
regional missile defence systems," the joint Chinese-Russian
statement says.
Chinese leader Hu Jintao also joined Medvedev in denouncing U.S. plans
to militarise outer space: “Russia and China advocate peaceful uses of
outer space and oppose the prospect of it being turned into a new area
for deploying weapons ... The sides will actively facilitate practical
work on a draft treaty on the prevention of the deployment of weapons in
outer space, and of the use of force or threats to use force against
space facilities."
Iranian President Ahmedinejad, fresh from trouncing his pro-Western
rival in presidential elections, dotted the “i”s at the SCO meeting,
taking a leaf from Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez: "The international
capitalist order is retreating. It is absolutely obvious that the age of
empires has ended and its revival will not take place."
But there was more than colourful rhetoric in all this, despite the
pooh-poohing of Western pundits, who deride the SCO and BRIC as a
collection of misfits and wannabes. The BRICs have put the U.S. dollar
on notice, and are already finding alternatives as a means of clearing
accounts.
Medvedev called for the IMF to include the Russian rouble and the
Chinese yuan in the basket of currencies used to value its financial
products. But that is just for starters. Chinese Central Bank governor
Zhou Xiaochuan says the goal is now to create a reserve currency
"that is disconnected from individual nations".
'THE ULTIMATE ROGUE NATION'
Even more ominous for the threadbare dollar, though perfectly sensible
in the computer age, is the revival of stone-age barter on a big scale,
which bypasses the need for any reserve currency at all. Brazil’s
biggest trading partner, once the U.S., is now (surprise!) China, and
they are using barter deals to settler their accounts, bypassing the
dollar altogether. Two weeks ago China reached an agreement with
Malaysia to denominate trade between the two countries in yuan.
As dollars are the world’s default reserve currency today, the U.S.
government can churn them out at will to paper over its massive foreign
debt and budget deficit, effectively letting it steal other countries
assets legally and forcing countries everywhere to finance its military
spending. China, Russia, Brazil and now India are well aware of this,
have had enough, and have the international heft to do something about
it.
For them, the U.S. is the ultimate rogue nation. How else to
characterise a country that insists other countries follow one set of
laws – on war, debt repayment and treatment of prisoners – but
ignores them itself?
The U.S. is now the world’s largest debtor yet has curiously avoided
the pain of “structural adjustments” that the IMF imposes on other
debtor economies, refusing to cut its bloated military budget or
increase taxes meaningfully.
"The world economy should not remain entangled, so directly and
unnecessarily, in the vicissitudes of a single great world power,"
said Roberto Mangabeira Unger, Brazil ’s minister for strategic
affairs.
The U.S. can never "repay" the $4 trillion debt it owes
foreign governments, their central banks and the wealth funds set up
precisely to dispose of the global dollar glut. "America has become
a deadbeat – and indeed, a militarily aggressive one," notes
Michael Hudson.
The problem is how to contain it. Rumblings are coming not only from
fringe peaceniks. Yu Yongding, a former Chinese central bank advisor now
with China’s Academy of Sciences, advises U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim
Geithner that the U.S. should save by cutting back on its military
spending. "U.S. tax revenue is not likely to increase in the short
term because of low economic growth, inflexible expenditures and the
cost of ‘fighting two wars’."
The BRICs are trying to organise their affairs so that they are no
longer the unwilling recipients of dollars. No matter what they think of
the U.S., they hasten to insist they don’t want to see the U.S. dollar
collapse, since they hold most of their own reserves in dollars. But
they are beginning to withdraw the life-support system the U.S. has been
relying on since Nixon completed the transition from a gold-based
reserve currency to a purely paper one in 1971.
Just to emphasise how serious the situation is, according to the
Financial Times, the top 5 financial institutions by market
capitalisation in 1999 were, in order, Citigroup (U.S.), Bank of America
(U.S.), HSBC (UK), Lloyds TSB (UK), Fannie Mae (U.S.). The top 5 as of
2009 are Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction
Bank, Bank of China, HSBC (UK), and JPMorgan Chase (U.S.). From 0:3 to
3:1 for China, now officially the world’s second largest economy after
the U.S. – a rout.
Just as countries are beginning to rediscover age-old barter, fixed,
pegged and dual exchange rates are also being considered, mechanisms
once derided as passe. In the face of continued U.S. overspending, de-dollarisation
will force countries to return to nationally determined fixed exchange
rates and dual exchange rates – one exchange rate for commodity trade,
another for capital movements and investments.
The world is discarding its sixty-year old framework, though the
historic meetings in Yekaterinburg elicited only a collective yawn from
most media. “Between the BRIC countries, there is really little in
common,” said Yevgeni Yasin, head of research at the Higher School of
Economics in Moscow.
"Each of them has its own destiny, its own special character, and
it will be much more difficult for them to agree among themselves than
separately with Western countries." China depends on manufactured
exports to the U.S. and Europe. Russia sells oil, natural gas and other
natural resources. Brazil relies on agricultural exports, while
India’s growth has been largely based on its domestic market.
However, Jeng Fengin at the Chinese Institute of Modern-Day
International Relations is less blase: "The financial crisis has
given a much-needed boost to the fledgling partnership between Brazil,
Russia, India and China and helped our voice to be heard
everywhere."
President of the Brazil-Russia Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism
Gilberto Ramos warned sceptics that the BRIC countries are all powers of
a truly continental scope and have very much in common, both
geographically and macroeconomically.
In case Obama hasn’t noticed, Eurasia is coalescing, not around
littler Georgia and big brother Poland, with their pretensions as
forward bases for the mighty U.S. empire, but around China, Russia and
India. He would do well to remember Yekaterinburg is not only famous for
its Russian past, but for Gary Powers, the U.S. spy shot down in 1960, a
fitting metaphor for how Russia and China are taking aim at the
U.S.-dominated international financial order.
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Eric Walberg is a journalist and writer
specialising in the Middle East, Russia and Central Asia, and a
long-time peace activist. He writes for Al-Ahram Weekly in Cairo, Egypt
and welcomes your comments at www.geocities.com/walberg2002/.
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