August  
2009

Vol 9 - No. 2


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LETTER FROM U.S.A.


The Puzzling Impact of Obama's 'Glasnost'

BY ERNEST COREA (IDN)

All things considered, there is no doubt that despite some push back, the Obama Effect has raised hopes of renewal and reinvigoration through much of the international community.

WASHINGTON DC - The most recent international public opinion survey conducted by the highly respected Pew Research Center contains within it the seeds of a fascinating riddle. In this instance, the answer is available as well. The question: What works almost everywhere else but does not in Pakistan, the Palestinian territories and Turkey? If you cannot think of the correct answer straightaway, give yourself 30 seconds and try a guess, however wild it might be. No? You are not in the guessing game? Well, the answer is straightforward: The Obama Effect.

The Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project 2009 interviewed 26,397 people in 25 countries in the period May 18-June 18, 2009. Here's the Pew Project's snapshot of how the world views America in the time of Obama: "The image of the United States has improved markedly in most parts of the world, reflecting global confidence in Barack Obama. In many countries opinions of the United States are now about as positive as they were at the beginning of the decade before George W. Bush took office.

"Improvements in the US image have been most pronounced in Western Europe, where favorable ratings for both the nation and the American people have soared. But opinions of America have also become more positive in key countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia, as well. Signs of improvement in views of America are seen even in some predominantly Muslim countries that held overwhelmingly negative views of the United States in the Bush years. The most notable increase occurred in Indonesia, where people are well aware of Obama's family ties to the country and where favorable ratings of the US nearly doubled this year.

However, for the most part, opinions of the US among Muslims in the Middle East remain largely unfavorable, despite some positive movement in the numbers in Jordan and Egypt. Animosity toward the US, however, continues to run deep and unabated in Turkey, the Palestinian territories, and Pakistan. Israel stands out in the poll as the only public among the 25 surveyed where the current US rating is lower than in past surveys."

DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES

The Pew Project's conclusions – both the overall impression it reported as well as the specifics of the poll – were approached from three different perspectives when its findings were reported to the public.

Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut was technical about both process and substance. He pointed out, however, that Obama's popularity as recorded in a number of countries across the globe cannot be discounted. He felt that Obama's popularity would persuade foreign audiences to listen to what America has to say. This, one should add, is a great change from reactions across a wide swath of the world's population to US public diplomacy in most of the preceding years.

John Danforth, former US Permanent Representative at the UN, former Senator from Missouri, a Republican, and an Episcopalian priest, described the Pew Project as "a remarkable feat" for the distance it covered and the inquiries it undertook. He saw no other significance to the effort. "I don't see where it gets us." Madeleine Albright, a Democrat and a former Secretary of State, differed. She approached the Pew Project's findings in terms of the substance it portrayed.

The Pew Project demonstrated, she pointed out, that Obama's popularity was based on his policies which were the opposite of those espoused by the Bush Administration. Changed policies have given many people around the world a different view of American leadership, and of the American people for having elected that leadership, she added. For instance, his decision to close down the Guantanamo "facility" was welcomed by people everywhere who were repelled by all that "Gitmo" represents. Of course, she acknowledged, some of the Obama policies which have been well crafted and which resonate well with publics in many countries remain to be translated into discernible action.

'WAR ON TERROR' DROPPED

Going into policy specifics, the Pew Project found that "one concrete, positive sign for the new administration in the survey is a surge for US-led efforts to combat terrorism," although Obama and his team have dropped the phrase "war on terror" and prefers to dwell instead on how to deal with "extremists." This is not just a matter of semantics, but of policy. The Pew Project observed that support for America's "war on terror" among the country's allies dropped steadily from 2002 to 2007. "Old Europe," as former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and others called it, as well as people in many other parts of the world, were distressed when the Bush Administration's "war on terror" appeared to be traversing extra-legal ground. This approach has changed, and so have attitudes to America's efforts to defend itself against possible terrorist attacks in the present and future.

The strongest support for Obama's approach was registered in Canada, Japan, and Western Europe. Support was also forthcoming in other countries including, for example, Brazil, Mexico, Poland, Russia, and Indonesia. The decision to close down Guantanamo scored heavily for Obama and the US, as seen in this representative sample of national percentages welcoming that decision (in alphabetical order): Argentines (61 percent), Brazil (60), Canada (90), China (68), France (82), Germany (84), Kenya (64), Lebanon (91), Nigeria (67) and Palestine (93).

OBAMA OR OSAMA?

Obama comes off well when publics are asked to compare him with Osama bin Laden, leader of the Islamist extremist group al Qaeda. "In 2008," says the Pew Project, "most Muslim publics rated bin Laden as high, or higher than they rated President Bush. But in the current survey Obama inspires confidence in many more people than does the al Qaeda leader. However, in the Palestinian territories and Pakistan, bin Laden's ratings still top Obama's by sizable margins. (Lebanon is the only country in the survey where Bush's ratings had been higher than bin Laden's among Muslims in recent years)."

Another key specific on which attitudes were polled was the current global recession. With two outstanding exceptions, for most countries "it's still the economy, stupid," as President Clinton's political strategist James Carville might say. First, consider the exceptions. In China, a whopping 88 percent are satisfied that the national economy is doing well. That's up from 82 percent last year. The corresponding figure for India is 73 percent, up 11 points from 62 percent in a year.

Elsewhere it is very much a matter of "doom and gloom." For instance, the relevant figures for satisfaction with national economies are (in alphabetical order) Argentines (20 percent in 2009, down from 23 percent in 2008), Brazil (44 percent, marginally up from 41 percent), Canada (43 percent from 80 percent), Egypt (27 percent from 44 percent) France (14 percent from 19 percent), Germany (28 percent from 53 percent), Kenya (19 percent from 60 percent) and Nigeria (23 percent from 41 percent).

In most of the countries polled, the Pew Project found that the downturn in the US economy was considered to have hurt their own national economies, an attitude that was prevalent in 2008 as well. India was an important exception in 2009, with 55 percent convinced that the US economy was good for theirs. Opinion was "divided about equally" on the pluses and minuses of how the US economy affects China.

Turning to major geopolitical issues, the war in Afghanistan, and the range of problems associated with the Palestine-Israel (non?) relationship, moves attitudes concerning Obama and the US towards a downwards trajectory, with the notable exception of Indonesia where Obama is well known because he spent some years there as a youngster. His favorable ratings almost doubled from 37 percent in 2008 to 63 percent this year. In several other countries, support for Obama and the US remained low or was mixed, with some favorable views among those who believe that he will consult other nations before going to war.

DEEPLY SUSPICIOUS

The Middle East continues to be a region that is deeply suspicious of American attitudes to the regional issue that concerns them greatly. Almost 70 percent in Jordan, 66 percent in Egypt, and 63 percent of Lebanese do not expect that the Obama Administration will be even handed in dealing with Palestine and Israel. The Israelis appear to share this view. Some 57 percent felt he would be fair before he heard his address in Cairo (delivered on June 4, 2009), and this number dropped 10 percentage points after they heard him deliver what the rest of the world considered articulate and appropriate. Palestinian expectations of fairplay towards them from the Obama Administration rose marginally from 26 percent to 31 percent after the Cairo Address.

As for Afghanistan, countries as disparate as Britain, Canada, Pakistan, Spain, and Turkey have unfavorable views of US policy there; in particular, the decision to increase American troop strengths.

Afghanistan is a country that has baffled and battered many powerful nations that attempted to refashion its governance and everything else. Contradictions abound even today. On July 29, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, the Obama Administration's Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and a towering figure in the field of international relations, told a press briefing at the State Department how impressed he was by the "dramatic upgrade of agriculture" that was being carried out with American support.

The next day, Danielle Kurtzleblen of InterPress Service (IPS) reported that Ug99 – a deadly strain of black stem rust discovered in Uganda 10 years ago – which has "devastated (wheat) crops in Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Sudan," could soon reach Afghanistan, "potentially threatening food security and initiatives to curb the culture of illicit crops."

Perhaps the experts who create the Obama Administration's policy for and in Afghanistan should pay careful attention to the wise words of the South Asian sage Swami Vivekananda: "In a day when you don't come across any problems you can be sure that you are traveling in a wrong path."

Nevertheless, all things considered, there is no doubt that despite some push back, the Obama Effect has raised hopes of renewal and reinvigoration through much of the international community. Ironically, this coincides with something of a slide in Obama's poll numbers at home. Now, let's wait for next year's Pew Project.

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The writer has served as Sri Lanka's ambassador to Canada, Cuba, Mexico, and the USA. He was Chairman of the Commonwealth's Select Committee on the media and development.

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