The truth lies in the uncomfortable middle. The LTTE had certainly become the principal obstacle to resolution; but its demise will not yield any automatic or easy solution. There is some evidence of a desire for reconciliation across the political spectrum; but racist obstinacy has not lost all its adherents. There is, moreover, the constituency of a cynical realpolitik which will look at the short term to wrest all promise of power, alternately, from Sinhala triumphalism and from Tamil despair.

It is already clear that the 13^th Amendment to Sri Lanka’s Constitution, which had long been projected as the framework for a political solution, has itself come under intense scrutiny. Almost all political parties, with the exception of the main Opposition, the United National Party (UNP), involved in the national reconciliation process, have now expressed their reservations to its various clauses.

The 13^th Amendment, based on the July 29, 1987, Indo-Sri Lankan Accord, and enacted on November 14, 1987, defines the following objectives and powers:

• To make provisions for the establishment of a Provincial Council for each Province.

• To establish a High Court for each Province.

• To make Tamil an official language and English the link language in the country.

• To merge the north and east into one province, subject to a referendum.

• To hold elections for Provincial Councils every five years.

• To have the President appoint a Governor with executive powers in each province.

• To define ‘Reserved’ and ‘Provincial’ lists detailing the powers of the Centre and the Provinces respectively. A ‘Concurrent’ list would outline shared powers, though ultimate authority for issues under this list would be vested in Parliament

• To make financial provisions for the Provinces under the direction of Parliament

• To provide residual powers to the President to overrule the Provincial Councils by regulations promulgated under the Public Security Ordinance

Although both the Indo-Sri Lanka peace accord and the 13^th Amendment strongly emphasise devolution, a closer scrutiny of the provisions of the 13^th Amendment quickly demonstrates that the exact division of powers between the Centre and the Provinces is not specified; and that the powers of the Provincial Councils can be controlled, reduced or abolished by the Central Government, acting unilaterally. There is, thus, no subject over which a Provincial Council can claim to exercise exclusive competence or jurisdiction. Apart from the existing lacunae in its provisions, moreover, the sheer loss of years in its implementation, and intervening developments, have deeply damaged the spirit of the Amendment.

The Government is, of course, implementing the language component of the 13^th Amendment, giving due recognition to Sinhala, Tamil and English throughout the Island, a matter that had been ignored for long, and that had been a source of deep grievance among the Tamil population.

There are, furthermore, possibilities of constructive interpretation that can secure a favourable outcome under the right political leadership. Varadaraja Perumal, the former Chief Minister of the North East Province(1988-1990) and one of the key leaders of the Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front, in an interview published on May 23, 2009, stated,

Quite noticeably, the Supreme Court had declared unlawful the 1987 merger of the Northern and Eastern provinces to form a single Tamil-dominated North Eastern Province under the Indo-Sri Lankan Accord. The Court held that the Emergency Regulation made in September 1988, merging the Northern and Eastern Provinces, was not in compliance with law, on the grounds that the LTTE had not relinquished their weapons – the pre-condition for a referendum originally scheduled for December 31, 1988, but postponed until January 1990. The referendum (which has not been held so far) was to decide whether the merger of the Northern and Eastern provinces should be permanent. The de-merger dealt a body blow to the peace process. Rajavarothajam Sampanthan, leader of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) – long regarded as the overground front of the LTTE – had thus declared, "The judgement knocks the bottom out of the peace process as a merged north-eastern province must be the basis for any peace negotiations."

According to a May 22, 2009, report, the TNA told a high level Indian official delegation in Colombo that India should press the Sri Lankan Government to go beyond the degree of provincial autonomy envisaged by the 13^th Amendment. Four Members of Parliament (MPs) from the TNA, led by R. Sampanthan, told National Security Advisor M. K. Narayanan and Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon that the 13^th Amendment was ‘outdated’, given the fact that the Tamils had made enormous sacrifices in their quest for a federal constitution since the Amendment was enacted two decades ago. The TNA MPs demanded ‘meaningful autonomy’ for the Tamils, and also urged that ‘Tamil Districts’ taken over by the Security Forces be de-militarised and the High Security Zones, which denied Tamils rights over their lands, be dismantled. They also demanded an assurance that the TNA MPs, who were the elected representatives of the people of the North and East, would be involved in all decision-making relating to the area. The MPs also articulated apprehensions regarding the Government’s intentions. Suresh Premachandran, MP for Jaffna, later said that the Tamils had been fighting for a federal Constitution, if not total independence, for 60 years, but the 13^th Amendment did not make Sri Lanka a federation with adequate powers devolved to the provinces.

The TNA has 22 members in a Parliament of 225, with a significant presence concentrated in the Northern Province. It is of particular significance that one of the cruellest aspects of the LTTE campaign was the near-total elimination through violence, of the democratically elected leadership of the Tamil people. The TNA could now fill that vacuum in the north, as did the Tamileela Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) in the east, as there are reports that the TNA is moving away from the LTTE’s agenda.

TNA apprehensions are shared by others with a less dubious past. Sri Lanka’s constitutional advisor, Jayampathy Wickramaratne, who resigned in March 2008, stating that the Government did not seem to be interested in devolving power to the Tamil minority, declared:

Wickramaratne added, further, that if the Government merely wanted full implementation of the 13th Amendment, it did not need the All Party Representative Committee (APRC), since, "The 13th Amendment is already part of the law of the land and needs only a political will to implement it."

The main Buddhist party, Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) or National Heritage Party, has its own grievances against the 13^th Amendment. JHU leader and Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Champika Ranawaka argued, in an interview in August 2008:

However, when asked specifically that whether JHU opposed the 13th Amendment, he clarified: "No, that is not the position. It has been recorded that the APRC has decided to implement the 13th Amendment in full, in toto. But our position is that no such decision is made at the APRC. The only thing that has been agreed is to the endeavour to implement of 13th Amendment and we have to search for a final solution based on political consensus." Again, Colombo will have to take the JHU into confidence for a broader consensus, as failure in this regard may lead to a Sinhalese backlash and more ethnic trouble.

Further, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna or People's Liberation Front, the once-militant principal Marxist party said, on June 4, 2009, that it would be compelled to "wage war against the Government" if it continues to "betray the nation" by ignoring the opportunity that has been presented after victory over the LTTE. JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe told a rally organized by the party in Nugegoda, "The Government has succumbed to India and is prepared to devolve power on the basis of what is over and above what is in the 13th Amendment. However, we warn the Government, we will not allow even thirteen minus." He was referring to President Mahinda Rajapakse’s reported assurance to Indian officials that his Government was ready to even go beyond the 13^th Amendment as part of a political solution to end the northern conflict which had raged for the past 25 years. Earlier, in an interview published on January 21, 2008, the President had said, "I think the 13th Amendment, which Rajiv Gandhi gave, was the best. And according to me the 13th Amendment plus one will be the best… Plus one is what they have to decide on." Similarly, Social Welfare Minister Douglas Devananda, at the UN Anti-Racism Conference in Geneva in April 2009, declared, "We refer to this as ‘13th Amendment Plus’, that is, deeper provincial autonomy than currently in the Constitution… This will include a Second Chamber based on Provinces."

On May 27, 2009, the JVP also put forward to the Government a set of 14 proposals to develop the nation "within three months", beginning June 1, 2009. The most significant of these proposals included:

• Establishment of a Task Force compromising all political parties represented in Parliament, to rebuild the North and East;

• Due consideration to the proposals of the APRC and a new discussion that assures the unity and rights of all people;

• Replacement by a strong unitary Government policy of the authoritative leadership over the Police, property and finance in provincial councils

• Effective implementation of the 17^th Amendment in order to strengthen democracy. The 17^th Amendment to the constitution is passed to make provisions for the Constitutional Council and Independent Commissions.

Despite the many dissenting voices, however, a statement issued by the Secretariat for Coordinating the Peace Process (SCOPP) on January 28, 2009, asserted that the 13^th Amendment could now be implemented more consistently than was thought desirable or possible in the past. Signed by SCOPP Secretary-General Professor Rajiva Wijesinha, the statement added further:

Earlier, on January 23, 2008 President Rajapakse received recommendations for a ‘political solution’ to the ethnic conflict from Tissa Vitharana, Science and Technology Minister, who headed a panel which studied a possible settlement in Colombo. It stressed,

• Full and faithful implementation of the 13^th Amendment,

• Holding of Provincial Council elections in the east; and

• Establishment of an interim Provincial Council in the north.

The final report of the APRC is expected to be released to all political parties ‘soon’. The APRC spokesman said that some non-participating political parties were also waiting to study the APRC proposals. The UNP, JVP and the TNA had refrained from participating in the APRC sessions.

Meanwhile, the Government’s attempt to implement the Amendment got a boost when the UNP stated, on June 2, 2009, that the implementation of the 13^th Amendment in full would be ‘a good beginning’ for the resolution of the national question. Outlining the Government’s agenda, Minister of Media (Non Cabinet Minister) Lakshman Yapa Abeywardana, observed, on the same day, that the Government planned to implement the 13^th Amendment "speedily" in the North, following the Local Council elections in Jaffna and Vavuniya in August, for which the process has begun. However, the Government would have to disarm all parties before the upcoming elections to ensure that the elections are free and fair, and to win the trust of the people.

Conflicting voices within the Government are, however, undermining its credibility. Addressing a weekly Cabinet meeting, Minister of Mass Media and Information (Cabinet Minister) Anura Priyadarshana Yapa said on May 28, 2009, that the Government had not taken any decision on the implementation of the 13^th Amendment with regard to devolution of powers regarding the police and land. He added that the Government had already set up Provincial Councils introduced under the 13^th Amendment – the Eastern Provincial Council had already been established, and steps were being taken to set up the Northern Provincial Council. No decision regarding other clauses of the 13^th Amendment had yet been taken, he stressed.

There is also evidence that President Rajapakse is trying to buy time, rather than to secure an early resolution. In a July 6, 2009 interview, he put the blame for delay on the TNA, saying that, they had yet to participate in discussion regarding a political solution. He insisted, moreover, that major decisions would need to be taken only after he had renewed his mandate through re-election, since he wanted the solution to come "from the people". Significantly, however, Rajapakse has sent out a strong message against divisive politics. "Whether it is Sinhalese, Tamil or Muslim, I am telling you all. No racism. Don’t try to create problems for me." Rajapakse has also expressed himself passionately against the ghettoisation of Sri Lankan society through a purportedly ‘federal’ solution that would, in fact, divide the country into ethnic enclaves:

Evidently, wide areas of disagreement persist. The country is, moreover, still under the state of emergency. The Government asserted in Parliament on May 26, 2009, that the Emergency will not be relaxed in the immediate future, as it was "too premature". , despite the end of the LTTE. Speaking in the Parliament, leader of the House, Minister Nimal Siripala Silva, said the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and State of Emergency will be continued as it is too premature to lift the emergency regulations yet. There are still apprehensions that surviving LTTE cadre, hiding at different places, may carry out attacks against soft targets. Unless a fear-free environment is established, the ‘political solution’ will always remain in jeopardy. There is still a great deal of hostility towards Colombo, and latent support for Tamil militancy, in pockets of the international community as well, and until the LTTE networks abroad are entirely dismantled – something Colombo cannot do – there will remain a residual risk of the revival of separatist terrorism.

There are, however, some very good signs in Sri Lanka. For one, the country has recorded among the lowest levels of unemployment in its post-independence history – the unemployment ratio, which stood at 8.3 per cent in 2008, has come down to 5.2 per cent. Sri Lanka now expects foreign direct investment to more than quadruple to $4 billion by 2012. The country has managed to sustain a reasonably healthy rate of growth for most of the period of a raging insurgency, and most enduring social and economic indicators are fairly healthy – with the exception of some economic disarray in the final phases of the war. The burden of rehabilitating nearly 300000 internally displaced Tamils, who were forced to flee their homes in the terminal stages of the war, will be significant. Nevertheless, if the reconciliation process is given even half a chance of success, Sri Lanka could actually realize perhaps the most startling and rapid post-war recoveries for any country that has witnessed a comparable scale of conflict.

[South Asia Intelligent Review]