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Russia
Triggers A New Cold War Threat
BY
RAMESH JAURA IDN *
A
spectre is haunting Europe, the spectre of a new Cold War in the wake
of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev formally recognising the
breakaway Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as
independent states. |
Though
without the ideological tint of the Cold War that appeared to have been
consigned to oblivion some two decades ago with the fall of the Berlin Wall,
it has explosive potential.
Georgia is a key Western ally in the Caucasus region, a major transit corridor
for energy supplies to Europe and a strategic crossroads close to the Middle
East, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia and energy-rich Central Asia.
Widespread anxiety about what may eventually come has been confirmed by no
less than Russia's Ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
(NATO), Dmitry Rogozin.
Comparing the current tension between Russia and the West to that prevailing
on the eve of the First World War (1914-1917), he said that a dangerous new
freeze in relations appeared unavoidable.
"The current atmosphere reminds me of the situation in Europe in
1914...when because of one terrorist, leading world powers clashed,"
Rogozin told the RBK Daily Russian business newspaper, according to the
Guardian.
"I hope (Georgian President) Mikheil Saakashvili will not go down in
history as a new Gavrilo Princip," he said.
A Bosnian Serb citizen of Austria-Hungary and member of the Young Bosnia,
Princip assassinated the Austro-Hungarian archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to
the Austro-Hungarian throne.
The retaliation by Austria-Hungary against the Kingdom of Serbia activated a
series of alliances that set off a chain reaction of war declarations. Within
a month, much of Europe was entangled in the 'War to End All Wars'.
In fact, it was a precursor to the Second World War (1939-1945), that was
followed by some four decades of Cold War between the ideological blocs led by
the United States on the one hand and the then Soviet Union on the other.
When the Cold War ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of the
Soviet Union, U.S. philosopher Francis Fukuyama published a historical book
titled 'The End of History and the Last Man'.
A crucial point Fukuyama stressed was: "What we may be witnessing is not
just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of
post-war history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of
mankind's ideological evolution and the universalisation of Western liberal
democracy as the final form of human government."
Fukuyama has yet to be proven right. The fact is that a new edition of the
Cold War is unfolding. But it is not the kind of war, as former German foreign
minister Joschka Fischer says in a column for the weekly 'Die Zeit', that
persisted between the two super powers.
It is a war between the only super power, the United States, and Russia that
is strengthening its armed forces with income from its huge oil and gas
reserves. It is a war aimed at expanding the Russian sphere of influence to
counter the U.S.-led NATO strategy of encircling Russia with radars and
missiles in the 'new Europe', the countries that were in the orbit of the now
defunct Soviet Union.
Fischer speaks of a "strategic blind alley" into which both the U.S.
and Russia have manoeuvred themselves.
Eduard Shevardnadze, former Soviet foreign minister and president of Georgia
prior to being overthrown by Saakashvili, says that both sides made mistakes
in the lead up to the war between Georgia and Russia.
In an interview with the German news magazine Der Spiegel, Shevardnadze says:
"Many people blame the Georgian President. They are wrong in part, but
there is also an element of truth to it. He can't be accused of having acted
illegally. It was legal to move our forces into (the South Ossetian capital)
Tskhinvali. But it would have been better not to."
But many European leaders believe that Saakashvili acted rashly and brought
down much of the destruction on his own head when he sent his troops to take
over the autonomous ethnic enclave South Ossetia.
Media reports quoted a senior French official as saying, "On one side you
have a bear, and on the other a little 'roquet'," using the latter word
for a yapping little dog.
Saakashvili may have fallen into a carefully prepared Russian trap, the
official said. "But when you're a chief of state, you have to know about
the reality of forces. This was an incredible misjudgment by Saakashvili."
But there is also wide consensus among Western leaders that Russia reacted
with a "disproportionate" and overwhelming military counter-attack
pushing deep into Georgia.
Russian President Medvedev's announcement that he had "signed decrees on
the recognition by the Russian Federation of the independence of South Ossetia
and the independence of Abkhazia" has swiftly met with sharp Western
criticism.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described the decision as
"extremely unfortunate," and said that Washington continued to
regard Abkhazia and South Ossetia as "part of the internationally
recognised borders of Georgia."
She added that the U.S. would use its veto power in the United Nations
Security Council to block any Russian attempt to change the status of the two
provinces.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Moscow's decision was "completely
unacceptable" and contrary to international law. She said Russia's
actions contravene the principle of territorial integrity, one of the basic
principles of international law.
Merkel said it was time to talk to Russia about common values. Things cannot
be allowed to continue as they are, she said. At the same time, the Chancellor
regretted the lack of a UN resolution on the Caucasus conflict.
Merkel said in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, that she thought "the
European Union will respond in a similar way." The 27-nation European
Union's heads of state and government will travel to Brussels next week to
attend a special summit on the Caucasus conflict.
The German Chancellor wants the European Council to signal that Georgia can
count on the EU in its restructuring efforts.
"Through our policy of neighbourliness, the European Union must do all we
can to support Georgia and Ukraine," said the Chancellor.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier also regretted Russian
President Medvedev's decision. Speaking in Berlin, he said it encroaches on
the territorial integrity of a neighbouring sovereign state. "We find
this unacceptable. It only adds to the difficulty of solving the conflict in
South Ossetia and Abkhazia."
The German view is considered critical in view of the eventful history of
German-Russian relations. Also, former Soviet allies now members of the EU and
NATO are of the view that Germany can play a crucial role.
This was evident from several calls to Merkel particularly since the beginning
of tensions between Russia and Georgia on Aug. 8.
Another significant player in Europe is France, which brokered a ceasefire
agreement to end the fighting between Russia and Georgia, and holds the
six-month presidency of the EU.
French foreign ministry spokesman Eric Chevallier said: "We consider this
a regrettable decision, and I recall our attachment to the territorial
integrity of Georgia."
A spokeswoman for the British Foreign Office was reported saying: "We
reject this categorically and reaffirm Georgia's sovereignty and territorial
integrity."
Sweden's Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said the fact that Russia's leadership
"has now chosen this route means they have chosen a policy of
confrontation, not only with the rest of Europe, but also with the
international community in general."
Western reactions reflect the dismay with which Europe and the United States
have watched Russia fail to be swayed by any international threats.
But explaining the decision, Medvedev said in a televised speech Tuesday:
"This is not an easy choice but this is the only chance to save people's
lives."
The Russian President said that Saakashvili had chosen "genocide to
fulfil his political plans." He said Georgia had wanted to achieve its
goal "to absorb South Ossetia by eliminating a whole nation."
Medvedev said the two provinces had the right to determine their future
particularly after the Georgian assaults, adding that his decision was in
compliance with the right to self-determination firmly anchored in the UN
Charter, the principles of international law and the Helsinki Final Act of the
Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE).
Abkhazia on the eastern coast of the Black Sea and South Ossetia in South
Caucasus rebelled against Georgian rule after the collapse of the Soviet Union
and have effectively ruled themselves following wars with Georgia since the
early 1990s.
Medvedev's statement came one day after both houses of Russia's parliament
unanimously asked him to give diplomatic recognition to the two provinces that
are known for their loyalty to Moscow.
Adding another bone of contention the same day, the Russian President warned
Moldova, located between Romania to the west and Ukraine to the north, east
and south, against repeating Georgia's mistake of trying to use force to seize
back control of a breakaway region.
Russia sent peacekeepers to Moldova in the early 1990s to end a conflict
between Chisinau and its breakaway Transdniestria region, and is trying to
mediate a deal between the two sides.
Transdniestria, one of a number of "frozen conflicts" on the
territory of the former Soviet Union, mirrored the standoff between Georgia
and its rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia until they erupted in war
earlier this month.
The Cold War atmosphere became conspicuous when the U.S. said Tuesday it
intended to deliver humanitarian aid by ship on Wednesday to the Georgian port
city of Poti, which Russian troops still control through checkpoints on the
city's outskirts.
A top Russian general said that using warships to deliver aid was
"devilish". "The heightened activity of NATO ships in the Black
Sea perplexes us," Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn said in Moscow, according
to media reports.
"Only yesterday I saw there were nine NATO ships in the sea and by
evening another frigate of the U.S. navy passed through the Bosphorus Straits.
We have also learnt that another eight warships from NATO states are expected
shortly," said Nogovitsyn.
He added: "They talk about planned exercises and you can probably find
some legitimacy in that but...it's very hard to believe that all the visits so
far have been bringing only humanitarian aid."
Ramesh
Jaura is chief editor of the Globalom Media
group, president of Euforic-Europe's
Forum on International Cooperation in Maastricht (The Netherlands) and
Director of IPS-Inter
Press Service Europe in Berlin.
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