SOUTH ASIA - Pakistan | May 2008

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                News Briefs             

A 15-point Draft Agreement, to be signed between the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan and the local political administration, envisages an end to militancy, exchange of prisoners, withdrawal of the military and resolution of issues in accordance with local customs and the Frontier Crimes Regulation. "The Draft Agreement contains clauses under which both sides will not take armed action against each other. The military will be withdrawn from certain areas, attacks on security forces will be stopped by militants," an unnamed security official was quoted as saying in The Post. The Draft Agreement requires

…the Mehsud tribes to give an undertaking that Government and security forces would not be targeted at all; their equipment and property would not be damaged; no military or Government functionary would be kidnapped; all roads would be opened to the Frontier Corps in accordance with the old procedure and there would be no restriction on their movement. Mehsud tribes would also be required to ensure that no terrorist activity takes place anywhere in Pakistan, including the tribal regions nor would they assist anyone in such an activity.

The Mehsuds would not use their soil for any anti-state activity nor would they allow anyone to do so, the Draft Agreement reads further. Mehsuds would "also furnish an undertaking not to create any parallel administration; respect writ of the state; contact the political administration for resolution of their problems while the administration would decide matters in accordance with local riwaj (customs) and the Frontier Crimes Regulation with the cooperation of local elders." Crucially, the Draft Agreement requires "Mehsud tribes to expel all foreign militants from their territory and undertake not to give them shelter in future."

The ‘truce’ is a consequence of negotiations between the TTP chief and the Government, mediated through tribal interlocutors. Maulana Omar, the TTP spokesman, said the dialogue was "coming to fruition" and the agreement would incorporate demands from the two sides. He disclosed that discussions were under way on two tracks – at the provincial level to restore peace in the settled Districts, including Swat and Darra Adam Khel; and separately for FATA. The Government believes that the current round of dialogue is more likely to succeed since they are being conducted with tribal leaders, not just with the militants.

The Draft Agreement envisages that the para-military Frontier Corps would replace the military in the FATA. Maulana Omar claimed that the Army had begun pulling out of the Mehsud-dominated area as a result of the dialogue. A military spokesperson, Major General Athar Abbas, however, denied that any orders had been issued to pull out the Army.

Maulana Omar has claimed that the TTP had in its custody more than 100 military, paramilitary and Government officials. They would be released after the signing of the peace accord through a grand tribal jirga (council). He said the Government had released three of their people, including Maulana Sufi Mohammad, chief of the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Laws, TNSM). "There will be full compliance from our side," he declared. "Those failing to abide by the orders will be hanged upside down in bazaars," the TTP statement warned.

That a ‘peace process’ is underway is now evident. Maulana Sufi Mohammad was released, after being taken from his hospital bed for talks with Ameer Haider Hoti, the NWFP Chief Minister, in Peshawar. Hoti told Daily Times that he was receiving "satisfactory feedback" from the Malakand region after the release of Maulana Sufi Mohammad, whose group, TNSM, has pledged to renounce violence. TNSM signed a pact eschewing violence in return for being allowed to peacefully campaign for Sharia (Islamic law). Security forces, however, have the right to "act against" any extremists who attacked the Government. The TNSM, one of the five terrorist groups proscribed by President Pervez Musharraf on January 12, 2002, was formed in 1992 with the objective of a militant enforcement of Sharia. Ideologically, it is committed to transforming Pakistan into a Taliban-style state. Sufi Mohammad is reported to have organised thousands of people to fight the Northern Alliance (NA) in Afghanistan after the defeat of the Taliban in 2001_ However, a majority of them were either killed or arrested by the NA. Some, including Sufi Mohammad, managed to return to Pakistan, only to be arrested. The TNSM operates primarily in the tribal belt, including Swat and the adjoining Districts of the NWFP.

However, Muslim Khan, a spokesman for Sufi Mohammad's son-in-law Maulana Fazlullah, whose militants are fighting the security forces for control of the Swat Valley, said they would not call a truce. "We welcome the release of Sufi Mohammad, but we will only lay down arms when the Government would enforce Shariah," Khan said. Nevertheless, sources indicate that a dialogue is also underway with Maulana Fazlullah and the Government had also initiated a dialogue with the Taliban soon after winning the elections in February 2008, on the perception that President Pervez Musharraf’s ‘military-oriented tactics’ had failed and were only spawning more violence.

Within the euphoria that ‘peace deals’ characteristically trigger, it is useful to recall that this is Islamabad’s fourth ‘non-military’ attempt to pacify the Taliban-led militants since military operations commenced in July 2002, and that the Musharraf regime had repeatedly dabbled with the ‘political solution’ as well, with no success. The first agreement, known as the Shakai deal, in 2004, failed to end violence and eventually collapsed after Nek Muhammad, whose ‘surrender’ in April 2004 was a widely publicized event, turned his back on the Army. He was eventually killed in a targeted missile attack on June 17, 2004. A second effort also failed after the agreement signed in February 2005 with the influential Mehsud tribe broke down after Abdullah Mehsud, a Taliban-aligned leader closely linked to the Binoria seminary in Karachi, reneged on the deal and reverted to violence. On September 5, 2006, Taliban leaders in North Waziristan signed a ‘peace agreement’ with the Government, promising to halt cross-border movement and stop attacks on Government installations and security forces. The salient features of this deal included the assurance that there would be no cross-border movement for militant activity in Afghanistan; on its part, the Government pledged not to undertake any ground or air operations against the militants and to resolve issues through local customs and traditions; both parties were to return each other’s weapons, vehicles and communication equipment seized during various operations; foreigners living in North Waziristan would have to leave Pakistan, but those who cannot leave will be allowed to live peacefully, respecting the law of the land and the agreement; the agreement would come into force with the relocation of the Army from checkpoints in the region; the Khasadar force (a local tribal force) and Levy personnel will take over the check-posts; tribal elders, mujahideen and the Utmanzai tribe would ensure that no-one attacked security force personnel and state property. This third ‘peace agreement’ broke down in January 2007. While the guns were silent, pledges that the Taliban militia would not cross into Afghanistan for terrorist strikes and would also not provide safe havens for foreign militants in Waziristan, remained unfulfilled, and there was no guarantee that militants not on board would abstain from cross-border incursions or attacks on Pakistanis within the FATA.

Despite this continuous history of failure, and the consolidation of radical Islamist forces under the rubric of transient peace agreements, there is qualified support from the US Administration for the peace initiatives of the new dispensation in Islamabad. Nevertheless, aware of the dangerous ramifications of negotiating with terrorists, a top State Department official said a judgment depends on whether the groups keep their pledge against using force: "You have to talk to people… The Pakistani Government is engaged in discussions designed to stop violence. It's got to be done in a way that produces results, that reduces violence," said Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher. He noted that there had been such efforts in the past, but unsuccessful ones because they were not enforced. The White House, however, gave a guarded response. Spokesperson Dana Perino said, "We have been concerned about these types of approaches because we don't think they work… What we encourage them to do, is to continue to fight against the terrorists and to not disrupt any security or military operations that are ongoing in order to help prevent a safe haven for terrorists there."

In an interview to Newsweek on April 21, 2008, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani spelt out a ‘three-pronged strategy’ to combat terrorism, especially in FATA. "We are ready to hold talks with all those who lay down arms and adopt the path of peace," he said. In his first policy statement in March 2008, Prime Minister Gillani explained his broad strategy:

First, we should deal with the people to improve their well-being and give them good job opportunities. We need to create a good environment and an education system [without the] old madrassas, where the students are being groomed for the Taliban, and give good health and communications facilities. We should give the people bread and butter and jobs, and only then can we think of the other strategy of [employing military] force. Force should be kept in the background and should not be put into practice all the time. If force is [used] all the time it will erode the authority of the Government.

Regrettably, efforts at reconciliation have often meant the creation of safe spaces for terrorism. The new Government headed by Gillani continues to labour under the misconception – as was the case with the predecessor regime – that ‘talking with the devil’ will bring rich dividends to the embattled country. Islamabad’s new masters are treading a much-worn path in gambling with ‘dialogue and development’ as their principal strategies to curb militancy in FATA and elsewhere.

Within FATA, terrorist violence and subversion affects all of the seven Agencies – Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, North Waziristan, and South Waziristan – in varying degrees. The writ of the state has always been fragile in Waziristan, but levels of violence have been continuously augmenting. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal database, throughout 2005, 285 people, including 92 civilians and 158 terrorists, were killed in Waziristan in 165 incidents. In 2006, the death toll was 590, including 109 civilians, 144 soldiers and 337 terrorists, in 248 incidents. 1,681 persons, including 1,014 militants, 424 civilians and 243 security force personnel, were killed in the region in 2007. And in 2008, 726 persons have died so far [till April 27, 2008]. Considering Islamabad's understated accounts, the suppression of the Press and erratic reportage, the actual numbers could, in fact, be much higher.

Peace agreements reached during the Musharraf regime clearly gave the Taliban, al Qaeda and allied jihadi groups a chance to regroup, build up their strength and consolidate. In more ways than one, the deals between the Government and the Islamist extremists are a signal that the Pakistan Army has failed in its quest for a military victory. When operations were launched against the Taliban-al Qaeda combine in the FATA in 2002, the Army, under enormous pressure from the US, was convinced that a military victory was essential. More than five years down the line, it is the proponents of a violent jihad who have achieved strategic successes. Moreover, Pakistan’s incapacity to prosecute the war on terror in FATA, in part, due to disastrous deals with the militants, has also augmented the already gigantic terrorist problem in neighbouring Afghanistan.

In the immediate future, after a formal signing of the new Agreement, the Army is to withdraw from the tribal areas; detained Taliban operatives will be released; their arms and ammunition is to be restored to them; and crucially, they will have full freedom of movement and activity across FATA and the adjoining districts of the NWFP. There is also a parallel ‘peace process’ underway in NWFP, where there is now a full fledged militant movement which is no longer a spillover effect of the radicalism in FATA. There is no reason to believe that the new ‘peace’ will not augment the influence of the Islamist extremists and their operational capacities. This, precisely, has been the outcome of such deals in the past. The new Government has clearly begun on a disastrous note by caving into the demands of the Taliban, to engineer an unequivocal retreat for the state. 

[Source: South Asian Intelligence Review]

 

Baitullah Mehsud orders cease-fire in FATA and NWFP: The leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Baitullah Mehsud, has ordered his militants to "immediately cease their activities" in the FATA and NWFP. "Baitullah Mehsud has issued directives to all his comrades that in order to restore peace in the region, they should cease their activities forthwith both in the tribal region as well as the settled Districts of the NWFP," said a pamphlet released on April 23, 2008. "He has warned that his directives should be complied with and those violating them will be publicly punished," it said. A spokesman for Baitullah confirmed the contents of the pamphlet circulated in South Waziristan in FATA and the adjoining Districts of Tank and Dera Ismail Khan in the NWFP. A 15-point draft agreement, to be signed between the Mehsud tribe of South Waziristan and the local political administration, calls for an end to militancy, exchange of prisoners, withdrawal of the military and resolution of issues in accordance with local customs and the Frontier Crimes Regulation. Dawn, April 24, 2008.

10 militants and a Frontier Constabulary trooper killed in FATA: A Frontier Constabulary (FC) soldier died and another sustained injuries on April 23, 2008, in an exchange of fire between Pakistani security forces and the Afghan Army "due to a misunderstanding" at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border at Nawa Pass in the Bajaur Agency of FATA. Up to 10 militants of a group which attacked the Afghan check-post and caused the "misunderstanding" were also killed in the clash. A Press Release issued by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that militants had attacked the Daud Qilla check-post in Afghanistan early in the morning of April 23. The Afghan Army started firing in the direction of Pakistani forces with heavy weapons and Pakistani troops reportedly retaliated and the exchange of fire continued for some time. The ISPR said the exchange of fire occurred due to a "misunderstanding" between the Afghan troops and the FC personnel. Daily Times, April 24, 2008.

TNSM chief Sufi Muhammad freed by NWFP Government: The NWFP Government has released Maulana Sufi Muhammad, chief of the banned militant organisation Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), under a peace deal to restore normalcy to Swat and its adjoining areas. "Sufi Muhammad and the jirga [council] have given assurances that he and his companions will remain peaceful," NWFP Information Minister Sardar Hussain Babek told AFP. A copy of the six-point agreement issued to media late on April 21 said suicide bombings and the killing of innocent people had necessitated the accord. Under the agreement, the TNSM will continue to pursue a peaceful struggle for the enforcement of Shariah, while respecting the law and condemning those who commit violence. Sufi Muhammad was arrested in 2001 while attempting to return from Afghanistan, where he led thousands of Muslim volunteers in the Taliban’s fight against the US-backed war on terror. Meanwhile, Army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas, said the military was not involved in the Government’s decision to release the TNSM chief, AP reported. Daily Times, April 22, 2008.

Abductors demand release of suspects in Benazir Bhutto assassination case in exchange for abducted envoy: The abductors of missing Pakistan envoy Tariq Azizuddin have demanded the release of 12 prisoners, including the men suspected of plotting Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, in exchange for his freedom, the BBC reported. The kidnappers have demanded the release of Lal Masjid cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz, the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TSNM) chief Maulana Sufi, five Afghan Taliban militants and the three men arrested on charges of allegedly plotting Benazir Bhutto’s assassination — Aitzaz Shah, Hussnain and Rafaqat. The people demanded by the abductors in exchange for the release of the envoy are all reportedly linked to militant commander Baitullah Mehsud. Maulana Umar, spokesman for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), however said that his group had no involvement in the kidnapping of Azizuddin. News of Pakistan’s Ambassador to Afghanistan Tariq Azizuddin, who has been missing since February 11, 2008, surfaced when an Arab satellite channel broadcast a video of him on April 20. Flanked by his driver and bodyguard, Azizuddin urged the Government of Pakistan to secure his speedy release. Daily Times, April 21, 2008.

20 persons killed in clashes between Lashkar-e-Islam cadres and Kooki Khel tribesmen in FATA: At least 20 persons were killed in fighting between activists of the militant group Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) and Kooki Khel tribesmen of the Khyber Agency in FATA on April 16, 2008. A tribal elder from the Jamrud Sub-division claimed that the Government had done nothing to avert the clash, despite knowing of hostilities on both sides. Tensions surfaced after the Kooki Khel tribe refused to surrender to the 30-point agenda of LI. The groups are reported to have targeted each other's positions in the hills, using rockets and mortar shells, Geo News reported. LI is lead by cleric Mangal Bagh, who follows the puritanical Deobandi form of Sunni Islam. He has attempted to enforce a strict Taliban-style Islam in the region, provoking the tribesmen. "We can’t implement the Mangal Bagh brand of Islam on ourselves and our people," elders from the Katya Khel sub-tribe of the Kooki Khel tribe, gathered at a meeting, told Daily Times on April 15. They said they were "as much Muslims as Mangal Bagh and his men," adding, "He should not teach us Islam." Representing the sub-tribe, Haji Shamshad, Haji Muhammad Ashraf, and Haji Sarfaraz said they were being asked to hoist black flags on their houses and surrender before the LI cadres. "All their demands are absurd as we’ve already taken action against those involved in smuggling, the hashish trade, kidnappings for ransom, and murders," they said. Daily Times, April 17, 2008.

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan organizes Ghazi Islam Conference in FATA: A two-day ‘Ghazi Islam Conference’ was organized by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Mohmand Agency of the FATA at the mausoleum of Haji Sahib Turangzai on April 15-16. Local ulema (religious scholars), Taliban leaders and delegations from the Tank and Swat Districts of the NWFP, and of North and South Waziristan, Kurram Agency, Orakzai Agency and Bajaur Agency, participated in the conference. However, the media has been prevented from reporting their names. Hundreds of people, including Taliban spokesman Maulana Umar, attended the event. Umar said that the conference’s objective was to enable the Taliban to spread the message of jihad. The conference participants established three check-posts on a two-kilometre-long stretch of road leading to the mausoleum in Ghazi Abad area on the Main Peshawar-Mohmand Highway, and guards armed with rocket launchers and Kalashnikovs reportedly surrounded the venue. The urs (death anniversary) of Turangzai traditionally held on April 14, 15 and 16 every year has been cancelled this year and replaced with the Ghazi Islam Conference, due to the reservations of the local Taliban, who said that the urs was ‘un-Islamic’. The Taliban has occupied the mausoleum since July 29, 2007. Daily Times, April 16-17, 2008.

Al Qaeda has new sanctuaries in Pakistan, says FBI chief: The Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) Director Robert S. Mueller told a meeting in London during the second week of April 2008, that al Qaeda would not "go quietly into the night," having established "new sanctuaries" in "ungoverned spaces, Tribal Areas, and the Frontier Province of Pakistan." Addressing a meeting at Chatham House, Mueller said al Qaeda is resilient and its network is now diffused. He said a top tier is the core al Qaeda organisation, which has "established new sanctuaries in Pakistan", which means that it can "reconstitute its leadership, recruit new operatives, and regenerate its capability to attack." Daily Times, April 15, 2008.

Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Toiba designated as ‘Foreign Terrorist Organisations’ by the US: The Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Pakistan-based terrorist groups, are among the 44 outfits designated as ‘Foreign Terrorist Organisations’ (FTO) by the US. Besides these, the Bangladesh-based Harkat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami and Pakistan-based Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) are also in the FTO list issued by the Office of the Coordinator for Counter-terrorism of the US Department of State. "FTO designations play a critical role in our fight against terrorism and are effective means of curtailing support for terrorist activities and pressurising groups to get out of the terrorism business," a State Department statement said. Other designated groups in South Asia include the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) in Pakistan. Daily Excelsior, April 12, 2008.

NWFP Government forms committee for dialogue with militants in Swat: The North West Frontier Province (NWFP) Government launched a fresh peace process for the violence-hit Swat District on April 8, 2008, by constituting a Ministerial Committee to initiate dialogue with different groups of militants. Provincial Information Minister Sardar Hussain Babak said that the Provincial Cabinet in its first meeting had decided to reactivate the jirga system to resolve the issue of militancy through peaceful means. Babak said the Committee, comprising two senior Ministers and some other Cabinet Members from the Malakand region, had been tasked to work out a mechanism for the proposed jirga. Elected representatives, notables and ulema (religious scholars) from the region would be inducted into the jirga, he said, adding that the NWFP Government was launching a comprehensive dialogue process from the Swat District. The Minister said the Committee would put up its recommendations to the Cabinet within two weeks. Senior ministers Rahimdad Khan and Bashir Ahmad Bilour would head the Committee. Dawn, April 9, 2008.

Balochistan Assembly demands end to military operations in the province: The Balochistan Assembly, in its inaugural session on April 7, 2008, unanimously adopted a resolution calling for an immediate end to military operations in the province. The resolution also called for the release of Balochistan National Party (Mengal faction) chief Akhtar Mengal and all detained political activists, and the rehabilitation of Balochistan’s internally displaced people. The House also passed a resolution unanimously calling for an UN-led investigation into former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. A resolution moved by 12 Legislators demanded a judicial inquiry into the murder of former Balochistan Governor Nawab Akbar Bugti and former Member of Provincial Assembly Balaach Marri. Another related resolution called for an UN-supervised probe into their murders, and demanded that Bugti’s body be handed over to his family. The fourth resolution demanded the abolition of the Police and restoration of the Levies Force. Daily Times, April 2, 2008.

Banned Jihadi groups to move Supreme Court for restoration, says Lashkar-e-Toiba chief: All the religious outfits which were banned by General Pervez Musharraf during his military rule would approach the Supreme Court of Pakistan and seek restoration, the chief of the proscribed Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) group said on April 7, 2008. "The ban was a step that the retired General took only to please America and now it is abundantly clear that people have rejected his policies," said Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, the LeT (now known as Jama’at-ud-Da’awa) chief. He criticised President Musharraf's Kashmir policy and alleged that the 'U-turn' taken by the Musharraf Government on Kashmir had badly damaged the cause of the Kashmiris' ‘freedom struggle’. The Kashmiri leadership and the Kashmiri people are disappointed because of the previous Government's Kashmir policy and they have lost their trust and support, he stated. All the options that General Musharraf had been offering on the Kashmir issue have not been responded to by India, he said. The News, April 8, 2008.

Force is only a ‘last option’ against militants, says NWFP Chief Minister: Authorities should only use force as a last resort against militants near the Afghan border, newly elected North West Frontier Province (NWFP) Chief Minister Ameer Haider Khan Hoti said on April 1, 2008. Addressing the Provincial Assembly, he said the use of force in the past made it harder to bring peace to the Province. He said his Government would, instead, promote dialogue at all levels. "We’ll make every effort to restore peace in the province. We’ll form traditional jirgas for peace," he stated. The Awami National Party’s Hoti was elected as Chief Minister unopposed on March 31. Daily Times, April 2, 2008.

[Source: South Asian Intelligence Review]