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Nargis: A Man-made
Disaster because of Climate Change
Is
Nargis then the beginning of the change? If so, why is the rich
industrialised world doing so little to contain its emissions? Why are we
not recognising that these are victims of climate change? Why are we not
beginning to penalise the polluters, so that emissions are reduced?
Tropical cyclone Nargis is not just a
natural disaster, says Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).
“While we can never pinpoint one disaster as the result of climate
change, there is enough scientific evidence that climate change will
lead to intensification of tropical cyclones,” says Sunita Narain,
director, CSE.
[BBC reported on May 16, "The
official death toll for Burma's cyclone disaster has jumped to
almost 78,000 people, with nearly 56,000 missing, according to state
TV."]
“Nargis
is a sign of things to come. Last year, Bangladesh was devastated by the
tropical cyclone Sidr. The victims of these cyclones are climate change
victims and their plight should remind the rich world that it is doing too
little to contain its greenhouse gas emissions,” Narain added.
What
the IPCC says
The
2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had
clearly observed that cyclones will increase in their intensity as a
result of global warming. According to the IPCC: “There is observational
evidence of an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North
Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea
surface temperatures”.
The
IPCC also notes that “based on a range of models, it is likely that
future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more
intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation
associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures”.
Big
polluters responsible for these deaths and devastation
Says
Mario D’Souza, CSE’s climate change researcher: “The voices of the
victims of climate change must be heard. Like the tropical cyclone Sidr,
which ripped through Bangladesh in 2007, the Nargis has also left
thousands dead and homeless. This devastation happened because the rich
failed to contain emissions necessary for their growth.”
Points
out Narain: “This is the challenge of climate science. It is clear that
while we will never be able to make absolute predictions or direct
correlations between events that we see around us and the warming that is
now inevitable, there is enough evidence to make connections. For
instance, we know that rainfall in our world will become more variable –
devastating for people dependent on rain-fed agriculture. And now we can
see the intensification of tropical cyclones, another prediction of
climate science.”
Climate
change is related to economic growth and wealth creation. The bulk of
greenhouse emissions are related to burning of fossil fuels, for the
energy that drives the world. It is no wonder then that the rich
industrialised world, responsible for the bulk of the emissions in the
atmosphere, has found it difficult to cut its emissions. After all, “its
lifestyle is not negotiable”, as a former American president has said.
In
this growth path, ‘more’ is the mantra. While science tells us that
drastic reductions are needed, no country is talking about limiting
consumption.
But
these emissions and lifestyles are now spelling doom for countries like
Myanmar and Bangladesh – and the big polluters of the world, such as the
US, cannot escape their responsibility and role in the ‘dance of
death’ of tropical cyclones like Nargis. “The question that the world
needs to answer now,” says Narain, “is how to make these countries pay
for the victims of climate change.”
The
only way it can be done is by making them reduce their emissions
drastically – 30 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050. There is no
comparison between the emissions of countries like India or even China and
rich big emitters of the world. There is a stock of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, built up over centuries in the process of creating
nations’ wealth. “This is the natural debt of nations, and they must
pay up,” says D’Souza.
The
fact is that these countries are doing too little to cut their emissions.
While the Kyoto Protocol agreed to meagre emission reduction targets of 5
per cent by 2012, between 1990 and 2005, emissions have increased. In
fact, emissions of countries like the US have increased by a whopping 20
per cent during that period. This is unacceptable.
It
is time the voices of the victims of climate change are raised to demand
tougher action from the rich world to reduce emissions. It is time that
the victims are compensated and the climate polluters penalised.
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