They reviewed the progress made in the Fourth Round of India-Pakistan Composite Dialogue. The meeting produced little of substance, but generated a flood of ‘diplomatese’ on ‘important bilateral achievements’ of the past, including:

• A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to increase the frequencies, designated airlines and points of call in either country.

• An agreement for the trucks from one side to cross the border up to designated points on the other side at the Wagah-Attari border.

• An increase in the frequency of the Delhi-Lahore bus service from two to three trips per week.

• The signing of an agreement on ‘Reducing the Risk from Accidents relating to Nuclear Weapons’.

• A MoU between the Securities and Exchange Board of India and Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan to facilitate the sharing of information between two agencies.

• Completion of the Joint Survey of Sir Creek and adjoining areas.

• Two meetings of the Joint Anti-Terrorism Mechanism.

The Ministers exchanged views on the issue of J&K and agreed to continue discussions to ‘build on convergences and narrow down divergences’. They also agreed to continue with the implementation of Cross-Line of Control (LoC) CBMs with a view to enhancing interaction and cooperation across the LoC. The two Foreign Secretaries will launch the Fifth Round of the Composite Dialogue in New Delhi in July 2008.

 

Clearly, the fourth round of the ‘Composite Dialogue’ was no different from the earlier rounds and, while pro forma diplomatic platitudes were naturally voiced in the Joint Statement released at the end of what is increasingly becoming a practiced ritual, there was little sense of any forward movement.

 

Nevertheless, viewed purely in terms of fatalities, the conflict in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has now crossed the threshold from a high-intensity to a low-intensity level. For the first time since 1990 (when they were 1,177) fatalities in this terrorism-wracked State in 2007 – at 777 – fell below the ’high intensity conflict’ mark of a thousand deaths. In 2008 (till May 25), 192 persons, including 140 militants and 26 civilians have been killed. At their peak in 2001, fatalities had risen to 4,507. Evidently, 2007 is a watershed year for J&K, bringing tremendous respite to its people. Figures for 2007 and early trends in 2008 reconfirm the continuously decline in terrorist violence in the State since the peak of 2001_ According to data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management, the fatality index in 2007 decreased by 30.38 percent in comparison to 2006. While there was a substantial decrease in civilian fatalities (164 in 2007 as against 349 in 2006) and those of the militants (492 in 2007 as against 599 in 2006), there was a relatively smaller decline in Security Force (SF) fatalities (121 in 2007 as against 168 in 2006).

 

On the ground, both in J&K and in the jihadi sphere in Pakistan, there is some indication that the militant groups and their handlers in Islamabad are now gradually seeking to reverse this outbreak of ‘peace’. And while there is no direct link between the cease-fire violation and the serial bomb blasts in Jaipur on May 13, any increase in violence is unlikely to be limited to J&K. There is now sufficient indication that Pakistan-based militant groups could be preparing for a renewed offensive against India and could orchestrate attacks on wide variety of soft targets across the country.

 

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, however, declared that his Government was ready for a "grand reconciliation" with India through dialogue to resolve all outstanding issues "with self-respect and dignity." On the ground, nevertheless, it is a different story. In just ten days, Pakistani troops opened unprovoked machine gun and mortar fire across the LoC on three occasions: in the Samba Sector on May 9; at Tangdhar on May 14, and in the Poonch Sector, on May 19, with one Indian soldier killed in the last incident. Exercising enormous restraint, the Indian side withheld return fire. Nevertheless, the ceasefire violations were rightly described as "worrisome" by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh These were the first major violations of the cease-fire by Pakistan on the Line of Control (LoC), which has been in force since December 2003. Nevertheless, infiltration across the LoC and international border has been a continuous – albeit depleted – flow throughout the period of the cease fire.

 

The diminished violence in J&K does not indicate any necessary dilution of Pakistani objectives, or decline in the capacity for terrorism, and there are clear indications that the infrastructure that supports and sustains the Kashmir jihad remains intact in Pakistan. Even presently, more than 400 militants are reportedly stationed in launching pads in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), ready to infiltrate through the LoC to step up violence in the State, defence sources disclosed on April 13. Official sources indicated that at least 52 terrorist training camps are still in operation, including 30 in Pakistan and Gilgit-Baltistan, and the rest in PoK. At least one-third of these camps are known to be ‘fully active’ at any given point of time. There are currently around 1,200 militants ‘active’ in J&K. Security agencies believe that current militant activity is also considerably linked to the mainstream political scenario, with the forthcoming Legislative Assembly elections. Nearly one hundred militants are believed to have infiltrated into the Gurez and Lolab Valley in Bandipora-Kupwara belt in the preceding five weeks, sources indicated on April 9. Six to eight groups – with as many as 10 to 20 militants in each group – are reported to have successfully crossed the LoC and landed in the Gurez and Lolab Valley in Bandipora and Kupwara Districts, since March 1, 2008.

 

The decrease in violence in J&K is certainly not due to any change in intent, but is rather the consequence of "changes in capacities and compulsions in Pakistan." The multiplicity of crises in Pakistan has diluted Islamabad’s capacities to sustain past levels of terrorism in J&K – "particularly since a large proportion of troops had to be pulled back from the Line of Control (LoC) and the international border for deployment in increasingly violent theatres in Balochistan, NWFP [North West Frontier Province] and the FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Areas]… Pakistan’s creeping implosion has undermined the establishment’s capabilities to sustain the ’proxy war’ against India at earlier levels." On a more general level, the decline in violence since 9/11 can be attributed to Pakistan’s domestic compulsions, the ongoing peace process, the American pressure on Islamabad and the successes of the counter-insurgency grid in J&K. Official sources indicate that the ratio of SFs to terrorists killed has seen an upward trend from 1:3.6 in 2006 to 1:4.3 in 2007 – a clear indication that the counter-insurgency grid is working well.

 

The India-Pakistan peace process remains, in substantial measure, tactical rather than substantive, with Pakistan in particular treating the negotiations as a parallel instrument to terrorism, to exert pressure on India. Further, the hiatus between the rival positions on Kashmir is unbridgeable, and it is unsurprising, consequently, that the two sides are yet to commence substantive discussions on this issue. The restoration of communication links, people-to-people exchanges, Track Two diplomacy and a range of CBMs have all gone smoothly and have largely been successful. However, the bottom-line is that, even though the varied CBMs currently operational between the two countries have strengthened processes of 'emotional enlistment', they do not, in any measure, alter India's and Pakistan's stated positions on the Kashmir issue. They do little, consequently, to change the fundamentals of the conflict in and over Kashmir.

 

The unstable domestic scenario in Pakistan has had an impact on the Kashmir jihad, though it has not led to any change in the intent or the infrastructure that orchestrates violence. Addressing a conference in the PoK capital, Muzaffarabad, on April 21, 2008, the chief of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) and of the United Jihad Council (UJC), Mohammad Yusuf Shah aka Syed Salahuddin, asked the new Pakistani Government to replace the "apologetic and one-sided policy of Musharraf with an aggressive policy that should be on parity basis." Demanding that 75 per cent of the PoK budget should be allocated for jihad, he said, "jihad is a duty and it is the only solution to the Kashmir dispute." Speaking on the eve of the Composite Dialogue process, Salahuddin said in Sialkot in Pakistan’s Punjab province, that the Hizb would wage "war in Islamabad and Lahore" if the "Kashmir liberation movement suffered due to the Pakistani rulers' cowardice, retreat and pro-India policies." Earlier, on March 19, 2008, Salahuddin had said Pakistan could not stop supporting the Kashmiri militant groups, adding that Pakistan has continuously been providing both military as well as political support to the Kashmiri militants.

 

Further, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, in Chakwal (Punjab province) on May 19, 2008, urged the Pakistani Government to "shun the policy of unilateral friendship and adopt a principled stand." Any solution to the Kashmir issue that was imposed on the Kashmiri people and went against their aspirations would not be acceptable to the Pakistani nation, he said. Earlier, on April 2, 2008, he had stated that a strong Pakistan cannot be realized until Kashmir becomes a part of Pakistan. While noting that the previous Government had caused irreparable damage to the Kashmir issue, he asked the new Government to restore the confidence and trust of Muslims by adopting Pakistan’s ‘principled stance’ on the Kashmir issue. Addressing a LeT meeting on March 1, 2008, in Muzaffarabad, Saeed announced that restrictions placed on jihadi operations would soon be lifted. Praveen Swami reports that the Lashkar war-machine is stirring.

Last month [February 2008], it began installing a new state-of-the-art wireless communications equipment at its control station in Kel, just across the LoC from the critical infiltration routes across the Lolab mountains. A training centre just outside of Balakote, in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir’s Muzaffarabad District, has been revived under the command of one of the Lashkar’s top irregular warfare instructors, Wagah-resident Sagir Ahmed. And, since January, a former Pakistan Army officer known to his subordinates as ‘Captain Salim’ has been training cadre for combat in Jammu and Kashmir at a new camp in Lala Moosa near Gujranwala."

Significantly, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) "has resumed direct funding of the Hizb, which was shut off under international pressure in 2006. Married cadre at the Hizb’s camps in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir are now receiving Rs.10,000 a month, up from Rs.5,200; single men Rs.8,000 against the Rs.4,200 on offer before the ISI funding was cut off."

 

Leaders of several militant groups operating in J&K, sources said, met in the garrison city of Rawalpindi in Pakistan on April 6, 2008, and vowed to continue their jihad. The meeting, organised by the Al-Badr Mujahideen at a mosque in Rawalpindi, was addressed by Syed Salahuddin, Al-Badr chief Bakht Zameen Khan and leaders of the LeT, Hizb-i-Islami-Kashmir and other militant groups. "The continuation of the jihad in Kashmir is linked with the survival of Pakistan," Salahuddin told the 500-strong gathering. Sources have indicated that, in recent months, shackles imposed on groups like the LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) are gradually being relaxed, the impact of which will be visible in the proximate future in J&K, which goes to polls later in the year.

 

Importantly, Prime Minister Gillani, while denouncing President Musharraf's proposals on Kashmir as "half-baked things" which "didn’t have the mandate of the Parliament," has stated that the "core issue" of Kashmir must be settled "in line with UN resolutions and the aspirations of the Kashmiri people." Implied here is Pakistan’s return to its more traditionalist position of a plebiscite. Furthermore, Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, during a visit to forward locations near the LoC in March 2008, reaffirmed the commitment of the Pakistan Army to the Kashmir cause "in line with the aspirations of the nation."

 

While the militants seek to reverse President Musharraf’s "reluctant rupture with his one-time jihadist allies," J&K and the Indian hinterland could witness a significant resurgence of terrorist violence in the foreseeable future.

 

[Source: South Asian Intelligence Review]

AFGHANISTAN

Who is the Enemy?
Soviets vs US in Afghanistan

Stinger missiles to Osama bin Laden and his friends. Now, after eight years of US/NATO occupation, the parallels — and differences — between the two occupation are many and stark, as confirmed by the current Russian ambassador to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov.   

“There is no mistake made by the Soviet Union that was not repeated by the international community here in Afghanistan,” Kabulov said. “Underestimation of the Afghan nation, the belief that we have superiority over Afghans, that they are inferior and cannot be trusted to run affairs in this country. A lack of knowledge of the social and ethnic structure of this country; a lack of sufficient understanding of traditions and religion.” 

Not only that, but the country’s new patrons are making lots of new mistakes as well. “NATO soldiers and officers alienate themselves from Afghans — they are not in touch in an everyday manner. They communicate with them from the barrels of guns in their bullet-proof Humvees.” As a career diplomat who was posted to Afghanistan in 1977, he sees some divine justice in the US ’s current predicament. “But I am even more satisfied by not having Russian soldiers among ISAF [International Security Assistance Force] because I don’t want them to suffer the same results.” 

Kabulov explains that things are even harder now than they were in the 1980s. “The structures of government then were very much there and our task was very much to support and to win loyalty — if you will, hearts and minds — but we had a working administration.” These are long gone, though, ironically, in Helmand province and elsewhere, NATO forces are fighting from military posts originally built by the Soviets. 

At least the Soviets were invited in, if only by one faction — Parcham, by far the most benign one — of the ruling PDPA. The US merely issued an ultimatum to the ruling Taliban to hand over their own erstwhile ally, Osama bin Laden, knowing full well no devout Muslim would turn a guest over to the enemy. The offer of the Taliban to send him to a neutral third country until proof of his masterminding of 9/11 was made was dismissed out of hand, and US and eventually NATO forces proceeded to illegally invade and depose the legitimate government, launching a merciless air attack, using depleted uranium “bunker busting” bombs, that makes the horrors of Vietnam and the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan pale in comparison. 

Another difference is that the US managed to con the world into supporting its invasion, while when the Soviet troops arrived in 1979, the US was already arming Islamic rebels with the most advanced military hardware, as Under-Secretary of Defense Slocumbe said at the time, “sucking the Soviets into a Vietnamese quagmire.” President Carter’s national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski made a point of maintaining the flow of arms, even after Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev made it clear the troops would be withdrawn, intending to use this golden opportunity to stick the knife as deep as possible into the now unravelling Soviet Union . On this basis alone, the current invasion should be miles ahead of where the Soviets were after eight years. But no. 

Yet another contrast is that while the Soviets were providing massive aid, effectively dragging Afghanistan into the 20th century with universal education, equal rights for women, safe drinking water — the standard communist fare — the US/NATO strategy has been mostly to fight the remnants of the Taliban, with aid well down the list. As for the quality of the aid, while Soviet teachers and engineers earned not much more than locals, and were generally selected for their idealism, Western-backed aid is channelled almost exclusively through foreign NGOs, with Western professionals earning the bulk of the money and living in conditions that locals can only dream of, causing well-earned resentment. 

It should be noted that from the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 till the US invasion in 2001, Afghanistan was mostly forgotten, with no Western programme of reconstruction. Russia , of course, had been bankrupt by then and there was nothing to be expected from it either. Ahmed Shah Ahmadzai, a mujahideen leader and prime minister in exile during the 1990s, admits the mujahideen failed in the years following the Soviet withdrawal. He is now an opponent of the government who stood against President Hamid Karzai in the last election. “To my opinion the ground situation is no different because the Soviets were imposing their Communist regime on us. The present forces — they are imposing their so-called democracy on us. They were wrong then and the present NATO forces are doing wrong now by killing innocent people — men, women and children.” 

Given the huge advantages over the Soviet experience, and given the possibility to learn from Soviet mistakes, there really is no excuse for the current tragedy unfolding with no end in sight. But then, in carrying out their invasion of Iraq , the Americans apparently learned nothing from the British invasion of the 1920s, repeating to the letter all the horrors the Brits inflicted on the Iraqis. 

Is it possible the chaos and murder is intentional? While the Taliban were no sweethearts, they did completely disarm the nation and wipe out the production of opium. Similarly, while Saddam Hussein would hardly be one’s favourite uncle, he presided over a stable welfare state where its many ethnic groups were at least not blowing each other up. In contrast, the US has destroyed the state structures in both countries, and made both into arms dumps. It has managed to turn the peoples of both countries against each other, with the likely prospect of civil war and disintegration into various malleable statelets. 

All in keeping with Israeli plans first published in 1982 as “A Strategy for Israel”, a plan to ensure its “security” (read: expansion) with the Middle East a patchwork of small ethnically-based states which it could keep in order. 

One brilliant innovation by the US , with Israel ’s Haganah and Irgun as possible inspirations, is the use of private mercenaries to carry out murder and espionage that the NATO troops can’t do because of their “concern” for international law. This policy is already well known to Iraqis in the guise of Blackwater. Special investigator for the UN Human Rights Council Philip Alston referred to three such recent raids in south and east Afghanistan during a visit last week, clearly alluding to US intelligence agencies, though he didn’t dare state this publicly. Alston said the raids were part of a wider problem of unlawful killings of civilians and lack of accountability in Afghanistan . In one incident, two brothers were killed by troops operating out of an American Special Forces base in Kandahar . Another group, known as Shaheen, operates out of Nangahar, in eastern Afghanistan , where US forces are in charge. “Essentially, they are companies of Afghans but with a handful, at most, of international people directing them. I’m not aware that they fall under any command.” 

A Western official close to the investigation said the secret units are known as Campaign Forces, from the time when American Special Forces and CIA spies recruited Afghan troops to help overthrow the Taliban during the US-led invasion in 2001_ “The brightest, smartest guys in these militias were kept on,” the official said. “They were trained and rearmed and they are still being used. The level of complacency in response to these killings is staggeringly high,” he said.  

Yet another innovation — the most frightening of all — is the role of the US in allowing, perhaps even facilitating, the huge increase in opium production, which, as already mentioned, was wiped out by the Taliban, which will be discussed in Part II. 

It is very hard to exaggerate the extent of the abyss that is Afghanistan under US/NATO occupation or to conceive of an honourable exit for the occupiers. Mercenaries, opium and who-knows-what, in a script written in Israel ’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

To be concluded...

____________

* Eric Walberg is a journalist and writer specialising in the Middle East, Russia and Central Asia, and a long-time peace activist. He writes for Al-Ahram Weekly in Cairo, Egypt and welcomes your comments at www.geocities.com/walberg2002/.