As the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) suffered mounting reverses on the war front in the North, the rebels were inevitably driven to escalate their terrorist attacks on civilians in other parts of the country in an effort to create some pressure on Colombo, and advertise their failing cause to the world. As many as 292 civilians have so far been killed in the Island nation since January 1, 2008, most of them outside the theatre of war in the North in about 26 explosions of varied natures.

The Tiger signature was visible in strength on June 6, 2008, when at least 23 persons were killed and about 80 others injured as two passenger buses in Colombo and Kandy were bombed. In the first incident at 7:30 am (SLST), a remote controlled claymore blast targeted a bus plying on the Kottawa – Mount Lavinia route near the University at Katubedde in the Moratuwa town, south of Colombo, which killed 21 people and injured 60 others. Police also recovered and diffused another claymore-type mine near the scene of the blast. Second explosion inside a bus, plying from Wattegama to Kandy, opposite the teachers’ training centre at Pollgolla in Kandy, at around 3:50 pm, killed at least two people and injured 20 others.

The twin blasts are part of a series of terrorist activities unleashed by the LTTE outside the North and East since January 1. On January 1 itself, the day before the Government decided to withdraw from the Cease-fire Agreement with the LTTE, an United National Party Member of Parliament, T. Maheshwaran, was shot at and injured by suspected ‘pistol gang’ cadres of the LTTE while he was offering prayers inside Sivam Kovil (Temple of Lord Shiva) at Kotahena in the capital Colombo. The Parliamentarian, however, succumbed to his injuries. One of the nine more civilians wounded in the incident also died of his injuries. The major terrorist attacks within the current series this year, include:

May 29: Three persons, including a woman, were killed by LTTE militants at the Zone 18 village in Anuradhapura District.

May 26: At least eight passengers, including four women, were killed and 70 others injured when an LTTE parcel bomb with a timer exploded in a crowded train near Dehiwala, at around 4:50 pm.

May 16: 13 persons, including nine Police personnel, were killed and 95 others injured, when an LTTE suicide bomber on an explosives-laden motorcycle rammed into a bus carrying Police officers at about 12.05 pm at the Colombo Fort.

April 6: The Highway Minister and Chief Government Whip Jeyaraj Fernandopulle and 13 others were killed in a suicide attack carried out by the LTTE at a sporting event in the Weliweriya area, about 25-km north of capital Colombo, of Gampaha district.

February 3: At least 12 persons were killed and around 100 injured, 10 of them critically, when an LTTE female suicide bomber blew herself up inside the Colombo Fort Railway Station.

February 2: At least 20 passengers aboard a bus were killed and 50 others injured when LTTE cadres detonated an explosive device at the Dambulla bus stand in the Matale District. The bus was to ply on the Kandy – Anuradhapura Road.

January 24: Police recovered the dead bodies of 16 youth hacked to death by suspected LTTE militants from a swamp at Kiriketuwewa on the Horoupathana-Kebithigollawa Road in Anuradhapura District. The victims were believed to be a group of civilians who had gone searching for their cattle.

January 17: At least 10 civilians, including two home guards, were shot dead by LTTE militants at Hambegamuwa in the Thanamalwila area of Moneragala District.

January 16: At least 26 civilians, including some school children and women, aboard a Central Transport Bus proceeding to Buttala town of Moneragala District, were killed and 67 others injured in a claymore mine explosion triggered by the LTTE in the Helagama area near Ella Road. The bus was simultaneously fired upon by the militants immediately after the claymore mine explosion.

January 8: Suspected militants of the LTTE killed Sri Lankan non-Cabinet Minister for Nation Building, D.M. Dissanayake, in a claymore mine blast near the Rukmani Devi Junction at Ja-ela, while he was proceeding towards Colombo. A personal bodyguard of the Minister, identified as K.P. Rathnayaka, also succumbed to his injuries in the hospital. According to the Police, 13 people, including seven civilians, were injured in the incident.

January 2: Four persons were killed and over 20 injured in a powerful bomb blast in Colombo. The Defence Ministry said the blast, which occurred at about 9:30 am opposite the Nippon Hotel, targeted an Army bus carrying soldiers.

Apart from these major incidents, as many as 72 incidence of violence targeting civilians, significant seizures and arrests, were reported – a clear sign of spreading LTTE terrorism in the country.

The military pressure on the LTTE in the North has been building up relentlessly and, prior to the attacks on the buses on June 6, the Sri Lanka Army (SLA) in an operation on June 4, had killed 30 LTTE militants and captured a one-kilometre stretch of the LTTE’s Main Defence Line (MDL) covering the Mannar 'Rice Bowl', by reaching the edge of the area, north of Adampan. This was the first time that the troops in the Mannar front had captured a stretch of the LTTE’s MDL, which stretches from Pappamoddai in the north of Manthai on the seaside towards Parappakandattan in the north of Giant Tank, for more than 11 Kilometres. The LTTE had constructed this defence line with a six to eight foot high earth bund (embankment), a water canal and a trench line, forcibly using the civilians living in the un-cleared areas (areas not under Government control) a few months ago, to block the advancing SLA Forces. Earlier, on May 29, 14 LTTE militants were killed and another 42 injured, when the SFs captured one of the outfit’s major strategic bases, "Munnagam" in the Janakapura area of Vavuniya District.

On June 8, the SFs also stormed the LTTE’s 1-4 Base Complex at five places and captured a 500 to 600 metre stretch of land in the Ethawatunuwewa area of Vavuniya District, killing at least 17 LTTE militants while injuring another 35. Six soldiers were also killed and 18 soldiers also sustained injuries during the fighting which lasted for eight hours. Further, on June 9, at least nine LTTE militants were killed as the troops stormed the outfit’s FDL in the Alankulam area, about two kilometres north to the north bund of the Giant Tank, of Mannar District. Two soldiers were also killed while 15 others sustained injuries during the clash, which lasted for nearly four hours.

That the Tigers are facing severe losses on the war front in the North – cadres as well as the areas under their control – has been reaffirmed by the Army Commander Sarath Fonseka on June 11, 2008, who indicated that the SFs were attacking Mullaitivu, the hideout of Velupillai Prabhakaran, the chief of the LTTE, from several directions, with the aim of capturing Prabhakaran, who, it was claimed, was holed up in a bunker and alive. Fonseka disclosed that the 56^th, 57^th, 58^th and 59^th Divisions were taking part in the operations and ‘Task Force 2’ – a new Army Division raised to create another battlefront towards Wanni – would also be inducted to expedite the operation. At the time of writing, troops were attacking the LTTE's 1-4 Base complex in a preliminary bid to reach Mullaitivu. Fonseka added that Forces had already regained several hundred square kilometres previously under the control of the LTTE, but they still need to advance another 21 kilometres to achieve the ‘final goal’.

The attrition the LTTE has suffered in these military operations has been devastating. According to data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management, the LTTE has lost 4,318 cadres since January 1, 2008 (till June 15), significantly greater than the 3,345 cadres it lost over the whole of 2007 and 2,319 fatalities in 2006. Meanwhile, the LTTE, in the latest release by its "Hero’s Department" has claimed that the outfit has lost 21,051 carders in its quest for a separate state for the Tamils in Sri Lanka. The period cited for the deaths covers 26 years, from November 27, 1982 to May 31, 2008. The LTTE conceded the loss of 918 cadres in the five months of 2008 – 616 males and 302 females – according to the Hero’s release, which added that, since the current pace of the war intensified, the LTTE had lost 1,004 cadres – 745 males and 259 females – in 2006; and 1196 cadres, including 1037 males and 159 females, in 2007.

Formal postures on the now-defunct "peace process" have been reiterated by both sides, as the war hots up. The LTTE has reiterated its demand that Colombo allows Norwegian peace-brokers to visit them at Kilinochchi if any talks are to begin. Ruling out the possibility of having peace talks with the Government without the participation of Norwegian facilitators, the head of the outfit’s political wing, Balasingham Nadesan, stated on June 3, "The LTTE has no problems. Our only intention is to receive the Norwegians in Kilinochchi as they are the official facilitators. Till then we will not discuss anything." The Government, however, has rejected this demand outright and has asked the Norwegians to "give a clear road map" to a political and democratic solution.

The reality is that there is, at this stage, little impetus for peace on either side. The LTTE, despite overwhelming losses, cannot be pushed to the negotiating table with its current cumulative disadvantages, and would seek to restore at least some dominance – even if only through waves of terrorist attacks – before it was willing to seek a tactical peace again. On the other hand, the Government, bolstered by the military gains in the north, has been reiterating its demand for complete demilitarisation of the LTTE as a precondition for any further talks. The President Mahinda Rajapakse, on June 12, 2008, insisted that that his Government would not resume peace talks with the Tigers until the organisation agreed to disarm. "When they are weak they call on the international community to arrange a ceasefire. During this period they train and rearm and then fight back. This time if they want to talk, they should disarm first," he declared. He added further, "This man (Prabhakaran) and the three or four henchmen around him are blood-thirsty killers. They have no feelings. It is very difficult to deal with them," suggesting that, even if the LTTE were to meet his preconditions, it seems unlikely that he would ever be able (or willing) to conclude a peace deal with Velupillai Prabhakaran.

The beleaguered LTTE leadership has little option but to unleash violence against civilian targets in an attempt to force Colombo to ease the pressure in the North. Any such concession would, however, be tantamount to giving the LTTE a fresh lease of life, neutralising the military gains of the past two years. There can be little hope of any early respite from either terror or war in this bloody confrontation.

[South Asian Intelligence Review]

[South Asian Intelligence Review]