With the birth of the ‘Federal Democratic Republic’, the fate of the 240-year old institution of monarchy is now sealed. The royal flag at the Narayanhiti Palace has been lowered and replaced by the national flag. Earlier, the Maoists had issued several threats and set May 27 (one day before the scheduled declaration of a Republic) as the deadline for the King to leave the Narayanhiti Palace. Maoist chairman Prachanda said, on May 13, 2008, that, "We have advised him to live like a commoner or else we will have to use force to kick him out." However, the first CA meeting decided to send an official letter to the King to leave the palace within 10 days and to bring the palace under Government control within 15 days, for its eventual conversion into a national museum.

This crucial CA meeting was preceded by a number of unsuccessful parleys between the political parties on various critical issues, on which a consensus was thought to be necessary before the declaration of the Republic. These included the process of amendment to the Interim Constitution for forming or dissolving a Government, the nature of the Government, the future of the monarchy, the nomination of the 26 members of the CA, etc.

On May 26, in a meeting with the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the Maoists presented their nine-point proposal. Apart from declaring the country a Republic in the first meeting of the CA, they proposed that the Prime Minister should be the officiating Head of State till the drafting of the new Constitution. In the proposal, the Maoists demanded further that, if the position of President is to be established, then both the positions of President and Prime Minister should go to them, as they were the single largest party in the CA. They also proposed to end the paramilitary character of their militant youth wing, the Young Communist League (YCL), and bring their People's Liberation Army (PLA) under the Government for rehabilitation and integration (with the Nepal Army). While other major political parties insisted on a simple majority formula for forming or dissolving a Government, the Maoists insisted that the current constitutional provision of a two-third majority must not be changed, evidently fearing that this could bring down their Government at any time in the future. The Maoists proposed that Girija Prasad Koirala could be the head of the 25-party coordination mechanisms.

On its part, the NC submitted a seven-point agenda to be fulfilled as a precondition to joining the new Government. Apart from the amendment of the Interim Constitution relating to the formula for formation or dissolution of the Government, the seven-point demands included disbanding the YCL, dissolving the Maoists' PLA, abiding by the landmark Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) and halting acts of intimidation, violence, abduction and extortion by the YCL and PLA, and the dissolution of the Maoists’ People’s Court, and Maoists’ local governments. It is significant that, with the sole exception of the amendment of the interim constitution, the other demands of the NC are primarily related to acts of violence, threat and intimidation by the Maoists and their sister organisations. Senior NC leader and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba demanded, "How can a party that is running parallel and rebel government structures lead a consensus government?" He added, further, "How should I behave with a person, who is a CA member, YCL commander and a commander of the Maoist army? Should I behave with him as a CA member or a commander of a rebel organisation?"

Similar, demands have been also raised by the CPN-UML, who among other issues, insisted on regulating the behaviour of the YCL. The apprehension of the two major political parties regarding the violence and intimidation perpetrated by the Maoists was justified by the fact that, even after the elections have been completed, YCL cadres continued to target activists and supporters of other political parties, creating an enveloping environment of fear and terror.

Maoist activities have also attracted the adverse attention of human rights bodies. On May 18, 2008, the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) of Nepal expressed serious concern over the activities of the YCL and affirmed that these activities violated the fundamental rights enshrined in the Interim Constitution, the Comprehensive Peace Accord, as well as international humanitarian laws. The NHRC also urged the Government to, independently and impartially, probe crimes committed by the YCL, and to punish them on charges of criminal offence. Similarly, the London-based human rights watchdog, Amnesty International, in its 2008 Global Report, blamed the YCL for violating human rights and enumerated a number of human rights abuses, including abductions and ill-treatment in captivity, assaults and violent disruption of political activities.

In spite of the criticism, however, the Maoists are in no mood to fall in line, and remain adamant on their right to form the new Government. As in the past, each position and demand is backed by intimidatory rhetoric, warning of ‘severe consequences’ if their will is thwarted. Thus the Maoist Minister for Physical Planning and Works, Hisila Yami, on May 9, 2008, threatened that if her party was not allowed to lead the Government, it would initiate yet another people’s revolt. "We are capable enough to the lead the Government," she declared, "if any hurdle as such is created in not allowing us to lead the Government, we will seek the support of the people to go in for a new form of revolt of greater dimension." She added, "I would like to remind it to all (sic) that our party had single-handedly led the decade long rebellion… we will have no problem as such in leading the Government in Kathmandu." And further, "The so-called big parties have been already rejected by the people, they possess no moral right or whatsoever to lead the government in future."

Earlier, senior Maoist leader C.P. Gajurel warned of a revolt if the NC did not relinquish power voluntarily, and, with little pretence to subtlety or civility, asserted, "The revolt will kick Koirala out of Singha Durbar."

The Maoists, in a bid to further strengthen their position in the CA, have laid claim to two crucial positions in the Government and the Assembly – that of President and Prime Minister. On May 29, 2008, senior Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai asserted that, being the single largest party, the Maoists deserve both the positions, and added that, in the transitional phase, both positions should go to a single party to avoid the creation of parallel power centres. Earlier, Prachanda had declared that he was ready to share power with other parties, but not the posts of President and Prime Minister. He reiterated his stand on May 30: "We are not ready to offer head of state and other key posts to those who were defeated in the elections. If those overthrown by the people still claim them, we will not accept it." He also openly threatened the NC and CPN-UML that, "If the NC and CPN-UML do not mend their ways, that may invite a Communist Republic."

The Maoist position, however, is rejected by the other political parties. Thus, the CPN-UML chief Jhalanath Khanal argued: "The constitutional and political basis and the people’s mandate through the CA polls do not favour a single party Government. So, the next Government should be formed by national consensus and unity between the parties." Khanal insisted, further, that the results of the CA elections made it almost impossible for the same party to hold the posts of Prime Minister and President. Similarly, NC leader and Minister for Peace and Reconstruction, Ram Chandra Poudel, noted that, "Demanding both President and Prime Minister is nothing but totalitarian tendency (sic)," emphasising further that this was a time when the political parties should work together and move ahead with consensus.

Earlier, at a meeting with the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Evan A. Feigenbaum, on May 26, 2008, Maoist leaders Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai had promised to end the paramilitary character of the YCL. However, there appears to be no serious indications of any effort to dismantle or regulate the behaviour of this much-detested group, as it continues to work as the backbone of the parent party. Completely disbanding the YCL would significantly diminish the Maoists’ influence at the grassroot level. The Maoists clearly realise the crucial contribution of the YCL during the CA election, and are unwilling to sacrifice the critical advantage this militant grouping offers them over other political formations in the country.

It is not clear how the Maoists propose to break the current deadlock, or whether they accept the notion of power sharing and cooperation with other parties to secure long-term peace and stability in the country. Their past record and present postures suggest that they are yet to abandon the patterns of intimidation and coercion that have gradually helped them consolidate their power and position in Kathmandu. To the extent that the other political formations remain ineffectual and irresolute, there is no substantive motive that could persuade the Maoists to discard the strategies and tactics of their past successes. The essential Maoist objective remains the seizure of the effective power of the state, not the establishment of what they regard as a petty bourgeois democracy. The declaration of a Republic has brought them one step closer to this objective.

[South Asian Intelligence Review]

[South Asian Intelligence Review]