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Possible Geopolitical
Consequences of the Mumbai Attacks: Study
Pakistan may face ‘massive
destabilisation’ under pressure from India and the US as fallout of the
serial terror attacks in Mumbai, a Texas-based private research agency has
warned, and the attacks may also bring India and Pakistan back to the brink of
a nuclear confrontation – a reference to a military standoff between the two
countries in 2002 after a terrorist attack on Indian parliament.
In an analysis on the geo-political fallout of the Mumbai attacks, Strategic
Forecasting (Stratfor) says, “If the attacks in Mumbai were carried out by
Islamist militants – as it appears – the Indian government will have
little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will
in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the US
into the fray.”
Stressing that India is already under enormous pressure to respond to the
attacks, it said, “Events point to a serious crisis not simply between
Pakistan and India, but within Pakistan as well – with the government caught
between foreign powers and domestic realities.”
Stratfor – which specialises in providing focused insight and actionable
intelligence to help governments prepare for uncertainties – says the
Indians will have no choice but to be assertive, and the US is likely to
follow suit.
Joint interest: “Whether it is the current government in India that reacts
or the one that succeeds doesn’t matter ... given the circumstances, massive
destabilisation (of Pakistan) is possible – (which is) never a good thing
with a nuclear power,” says the Stratfor analysis. It says the Indians and
Americans would have a ‘joint interest’ in forcing the Pakistani
government ‘to act decisively and immediately’.
“The shape of the crisis will (then) consist of demands that the Pakistanis
take immediate steps to suppress Islamist radicals across the board,
particularly in Kashmir. New Delhi will demand that this action be immediate
and public. This demand will come parallel to US demands for the same actions
and threats by incoming US President Barack Obama to force greater cooperation
from Pakistan. If that happens, Pakistan will find itself in a nutcracker. The
Indians will be threatening action – deliberately vague but menacing –
along with the Americans. This will be even more intense if it turns out, as
currently seems likely, that Americans and Europeans were being held hostage
in the two hotels that were attacked. If the attacks are traced to Pakistan,
American demands will escalate well in advance of inauguration day.”
"If
that happens, Pakistan will find itself in a nutcracker. On the one side, the
Indians will be threatening action — deliberately vague but menacing —
along with the Americans. This will be even more intense if it turns out, as
currently seems likely, that Americans and Europeans were being held hostage
(or worse) in the two hotels that were attacked. If the attacks are traced to
Pakistan, American demands will escalate well in advance of inauguration
day," continues the analysis.
Assumption: The Stratfor analysts, however, make it clear that “this is
thinking far ahead of the curve, and (the warning) is based on an assumption
of the truth of something we don’t know for certain yet, which is that the
attackers were Muslims and that the Pakistanis will not be able to demonstrate
categorically that they weren’t involved”.
“Since we suspect they (the terrorists) were Muslims and since we doubt the
Pakistanis can be categorical and convincing enough to thwart Indian demands,
we suspect we will be deep into a crisis within the next few days ... very
shortly after the situation on the ground clarifies itself,” the Stratfor
analysts have predicted. But they have also said the Indian government would
claim the involvement of foreign quarters – regardless of the truth – to
use the situation to strengthen their internal position.
“That, in turn, will plunge India and Pakistan into the worst crisis they
have had since 2002.” If the Pakistanis are understood to be responsible for
the attack, then the Indians must hold them responsible, and that means they
will have to take action in retaliation — otherwise, the Indian
government’s domestic credibility will plunge. “The Indians and Americans
will have a joint interest in forcing the Pakistani government to act
decisively and immediately ... the crisis will directly intersect US and NATO
operations in Afghanistan,” the study adds.
[Source:
Stratfor Study and Daily Times, Pakistan]
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